Getting a trade deal that helps both sides might be impossible - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

Observers watch the proceedings at the G20 in Japan as Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will try to hammer out a kind of trade deal. But getting a deal that makes both sides happy is virtually impossible, says economist Arthur Kroeber in the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

Arthur Kroeber, research head and co-founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, wrote in a note that “it will be very tricky to come up with a deal that satisfies the political requirements on both sides.” 

Trump, a Republican, decided to break off negotiations in early May because a deal would be a “political liability” for him if right-wing hardliners and Democratic opponents saw its terms as inadequate. 

In China, the terms negotiated by Vice-Premier Liu He, Xi’s top economic aide, were “politically unsaleable,” with powerful forces in Beijing suggesting US demands were excessive, Kroeber added.

More in the South China Morning Post.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more strategic experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

Liu He: supporter of Xi's state-driven economic agenda - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The appointment of Liu He as president Xi Jinping's economic top man has started speculations on his political direction, including a restart of reforms. We should not expect Liu to divert too much from the state-driven economic agenda Xi has already set out in the past few years, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® to the New York Times.

The New York Times:

 Those expecting a sweeping opening of China’s economy are likely to be disappointed, some experts warn. While Mr. Liu is considered an able policymaker, his main mission will be to implement Mr. Xi’s vision of an economy that serves the interest of the party and the Chinese state, and not the other way around. 

Mr. Liu is “a steady pair of hands who has apparently managed many economic issues competently over the past couple of years,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent economic research firm. 

But, Mr. Kroeber added, “the direction of economic policy under Xi has become quite clear over the past few years: state capitalism, with a large role for strengthened or consolidated state-owned enterprises, co-optation of private companies to serve state agendas.” 

Mr. Liu’s appointment helps advance a push by Mr. Xi to consolidate the regulatory bodies that oversee the world’s No. 2 economy. This goal was apparent last week, when the congress approved a sweeping reshuffling of government that merged many separate agencies into a smaller number of superministries.

More in the New York Times.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more political analysts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.