Weblog with daily updates of the news on a frugal, fair and beautiful China, from the perspective of internet entrepreneur, new media advisor and president of the China Speakers Bureau Fons Tuinstra
Showing posts with label semi-conductors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label semi-conductors. Show all posts
The world was in awe when Nvidia emerged as a giant in the stock markets, but the AI industry is still waiting for a real shake-out as it is still lacking a real killer app, says Winston Ma, adjunct professor at the NYU School of Law, in a comment at Forbes.
Forbes:
The market is betting on a much bigger story than generative AI itself: Maybe the AI boom will be the key critical catalyst for the ultimate digital transformation of all industries and economies, explains Winston Ma, adjunct professor at the NYU School of Law. “Then the demand for Nvidia chips will explode exponentially. The jury is still out because the market is searching for AI killer apps. 2024-2025 would be the years of AI implementation. The real test for Nvidia has just begun.”
China is pumping billions of US dollars to safeguard the essential supply of semiconductors, now into a third state-back fund, says Winston Ma adjunct professor of law at NYU School of Law at CNBC.
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US restrictions on purchasing chips from China are hurting US semiconductor firms, says political analyst Victor Shih in an interview with the state news agency Xinhua. Not every chip sold by U.S. companies is cutting edge or has national security relevance. In those cases, the U.S. government should show some flexibility,” said Shih
Xinhua:
The Biden administration’s curbs on chip sales to China likely have impeded revenue growth of U.S. chips companies to some extent, a U.S. expert has said.
“The U.S. chips companies, like any companies, are very interested in expanding market share, and selling to the China market is very important since China is now the biggest consumer of chips in the world,” Victor Shih, associate professor of political science who also heads the 21st Century China Center at the School of Global Policy and Strategy with the University of California San Diego, told Xinhua in a recent interview…
On July 25, the Semiconductor Industry Association and Oxford Economics released a joint report stating that approximately 67,000 positions in the U.S. semiconductor industry, including roles for technicians, computer scientists and engineers, are projected to remain vacant by 2030.
Besides the shortfall of skilled workforce, the high cost is another hurdle for the industry. “The higher cost basis in the U.S. will not change in the short run. In the medium term, it remains unclear whether the U.S. can set up an apprenticeship program to train sufficient numbers of technicians for semiconductor fabs,” said Shih.
The Semiconductor Industry Association revealed that the 10-year total cost of ownership of a new lab in the United States is 30-50 percent higher than in East Asian economies…
If the restrictions continue, “the segmentation of the global semi market potentially will create very capable Chinese chips competitors to U.S. companies since Chinese buyers now have no choice but to buy from domestic chips makers, giving them a large captive market,” Shih said.
“A balance between national security concerns and commercial concerns is possible. Not every chip sold by U.S. companies is cutting edge or has national security relevance. In those cases, the U.S. government should show some flexibility,” said Shih.
The geopolitical arguments between China and the USA are developing fast. Renowned economist Arthur Kroeber takes the stock right now as US treasury secretary Yellen visits Beijing, for the NPR. How can two major economies disentangle if they rely so much on each other?
NPR:
SCHMITZ: It’s been four years since a U.S. treasury secretary visited Beijing. And in that time, relations between the U.S. and China have worsened considerably. For years, these two economies really needed each other. To what extent is that still the case?
KROEBER: I think that’s still enormously the case. You know, all-time – trade is at an all-time high, over $700 billion. You have a lot of U.S. companies that still rely on China as one of their major markets, both for volume and for growth. So there’s definitely been some chipping away in certain areas, notably semiconductors. But the level of interdependence is still extremely high.
SCHMITZ: And, you know, the U.S. has been trying to disentangle itself from China more recently, you know, reshoring supply chains, placing controls on semiconductor technology, as you mentioned, you know, keeping Trump era tariffs on Chinese goods in place. I’m curious, how do you think this has shaped how China interacts with the rest of the world?
KROEBER: Well, I think the Chinese have come to the conclusion that it is the purpose of U.S. policy not just to reduce its reliance on China but to slow down China’s growth and its technological development. So it’s made China a lot more suspicious than it already was of U.S. intentions. So it’s created that problem. It’s also encouraged the Chinese to ramp up the charm offensive to international companies both from the U.S. and from Europe, and in other areas because they want to continue large inflows of foreign investment and looking for companies to act as a counterweight against political pressure that’s coming not only from Washington but also from Europe as well.
SCHMITZ: You know, to what degree does reduced dependence between these two superpowers increase the risk of greater hostilities or even conflict between the two?
KROEBER: Well, if we really get to a point where the economies are significantly less dependent on each other, I think that is a problem. And if you look at two simple examples from the last two decades – we’ve had an extraordinary period of peace over Taiwan, which is kind of disputed territory. And one of the reasons for that is because the high level of economic interdependence between China and the U.S. and Taiwan means that the costs of China trying to solve that issue by military means are extremely high.
I think you can also see that in the Russia-Ukraine situation, that China has an alignment with Russia. They would probably like to do more to help them in the current situation. But they’ve been very, very cautious about staying away from exporting weapons to Russia, again, because of the costs, because of their high interdependence. So I don’t think we’re at a low interdependence level yet.
