Weblog with daily updates of the news on a frugal, fair and beautiful China, from the perspective of internet entrepreneur, new media advisor and president of the China Speakers Bureau Fons Tuinstra
China veteran Kaiser Kuo of the Sinica Podcast moderates a discussion on how the US-China tension have an profound impact on the war in the Ukraine and the position of Taiwan at the Ukrainian platform for Contemporary China.
The speakers: Da Wei, Director of Center for International Security and Strategy; Professor at School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University; Dmytro Burtsev, Junior Fellow at A. Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; Emilian Kavalski, Professor at Centre for International Studies and Development, Jagiellonian University in Krakow; Yuan I, Research Fellow, Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
In the ongoing war in Ukraine, China’s biggest fear is Russia becoming a democracy, says political analyst Victor Shih at a panel of the Brown China Summit. But “rationally, I agree that China would not intervene in any way,” says Shih.
The Brown Daily Herald:
Because of its shared border with Russia, China wants to avoid the possibility of Russia democratizing, Shih said. This creates a situation where Putin “can make bigger military gambles … knowing that financially, China’s going to come to its aid.”
“Rationally, I agree that China would not intervene in any way,” he added. “On the other hand, this (conflict) is a credible threat to China. … The situation is evolving, so I guess we’ll see.”
CFR scholar and China veteran Ian Johnson discusses the country’s difficult balancing act between keeping control and economic growth at a panel of the Council of Foreign Relations, with of course attention to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, COVID-19, and China’s agenda.
Author Zhang Lijia is shocked by the fake news in China’s media on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she reports while traveling in Northern Africa. “The first casualty of war is truth.” How true!”, she writes on her weblog.
Zhang Lijia:
“The first casualty of war is truth.” How true!
I’ve been following China’s coverage with fascination and disgust. Although China claims to be neutral on the matter and even offers itself as a peace maker, its media coverage has more or less been following the Russian line. To start with, instead of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it is termed as ‘Russian and Ukraine conflict’. It hardly mentions the immense suffering of the civilians in Ukraine or its people’s incredible courageous resistance, which moved the people around the world.
How ridiculous that China now blames the U.S and Nato for the invasion. See attached the screen shot of the Chinese article.
A professor Zhang Wenmu from Beihang University, a nationalistic academic, penned a piece “Why has Ukraine Nazi-ized”. There’s a lot of discussion on the topic on the internet. Again, it is ridiculous! The Ukraine president Zelensky is a Jew. Why would he want his country to Nazi-ized?
There’s been a lot of fake news. From a group on Wechat called Friends in London, someone posted a video clip about a week ago, showing Putin crying over the death of Russian soldiers and when their bodies were carried back to Russia, the ordinary people knelt down on the road side, to show their respect. Completely false! If Putin cares about his soldiers, he wouldn’t have sent them over to Ukraine. He is a narcissistic who is utterly indifferent to human sufferings.
The world has been utterly confused by China’s attitude to Russia and the war in Ukraine. One thing is sure, says China analyst Ian Johnsonin an opinion piece for CNN, we should not expect China to solve the war in Ukraine. “Becoming involved in foreigners’ disputes makes no sense. Better to stay out of the fray, see who is likely to win, and then cut deals,” Ian Johnson says.
Ian Johnson:
The war in Ukraine has prompted renewed appeals for China to get involved in an international crisis, with commentators discussing how the country is well-placed to negotiate an end to the fighting. Politicians have taken up the call too: the Ukrainian foreign minister reportedly asked China to get involved, while on Tuesday European leaders video-called Chinese leader Xi Jinping in an effort to keep him in the loop.
These ideas all make good sense — but are likely to fail. That’s because China, far from being able to act decisively on the world stage, suffers from a chronic leadership void that leaves it paralyzed to act in the face of global crises….
It is illusory to think that China can play a constructive role in Ukraine. On paper, it makes sense. China is Russia’s last major market now that the West has largely cut ties with them. Xi’s diplomats could easily get Russia’s ear and suggest, ever so subtly, that some sort of settlement would be beneficial to all sides.
It would also be in China’s best interests to take such a step. China grew rich in the international order that Putin seeks to destroy. Ultimately it needs to compete with the world’s leading countries, and to do that it needs an open world system with a free flow of capital and ideas. Slumming it with dysfunctional states like Russia only drags China down.
This could still happen, and China might set aside its domestic priorities to help end the crisis. But doing so would require a seismic shift. Playing the middleman would require China to distance itself from Russia, after boasting that their friendship has “no limits.”
Instead, China is likely to act neutral but continue to show most of its sympathy for Russia, not Ukraine or the democracies fighting to save its independence.
That’s because everything Xi has implemented at home has been to stifle free thought, not unleash it. He views the democratic world with similar distrust. He hopes China will supplant them but with home-grown innovation and not a robust exchange of ideas and products. It is a self-centered world vision, one where ties are mainly zero-sum: you win, I lose.
In this context, if the West is embroiled in a dispute with Russia over Europe, then China wins. Becoming involved in foreigners’ disputes makes no sense. Better to stay out of the fray, see who is likely to win, and then cut deals.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised multiple questions on China’s relationship with Russia, Taiwan, and the USA. CFR-scholar Ian Johnsonlooks at the CFR-blog at a wide range of the international fallout of recent affairs. And can and will China bail out Putin from the economic and financial sanctions?
Ian Johnson:
Could China’s economic relationship with Russia make sanctions ineffective?
It is unlikely that China immediately offers aid to Russia, but it could easily become the long-term buyer of gas and other resources that Russia can’t sell to Western countries. On Friday, it announced that it would loosen restrictions on Russian grain imports, but this had been in the works for some time.
Overall, changing the flow of resources will not happen overnight. Pipelines take many years to construct, so China can’t suddenly step in to buy sanctioned goods, such as natural gas that would have been carried by the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. But in the coming years, China can offset sanctions by becoming a no-questions-asked buyer of Russian resources.
Could Putin’s invasion embolden Xi to increase pressure on Taiwan?
China’s foreign ministry has said clearly that Ukraine and Taiwan are not the same. While China views Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory, it considers Ukraine a fully sovereign country. But on a deeper level, the logic is similar.
Both the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation are descendants of large, continental, multiethnic empires. The twentieth century saw China lose Mongolia and Taiwan in the aftermath of the Qing dynasty’s collapse. China no longer claims Mongolia, but it still wants Taiwan and hasn’t ruled out taking it by force. Russia fared worse when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It lost most of Central Asia, as well as territories in Europe, including the Baltic states, many parts of the Caucasus, Belarus, and Ukraine. Russia seems to have given up on recapturing Central Asia (content, perhaps, to have loyal strongmen run those countries) but clearly wants segments of its European territories back.
Russia’s situation is something nationalists in China can clearly identify with. So if Russia can grab chunks of Ukraine or install a puppet regime and withstand economic sanctions, that could embolden nationalists in China to look to Taiwan and think they could do the same.
Is the United States likely to work with China in responding to the invasion?
In an ideal world, the United States would be able to restart high-level dialogue with China. It could then remind Beijing that its future is as a global leader, engaging and competing with advanced countries, not slumming with energy-state autocracies such as Russia.
But there is little hope of this happening, because ties between Washington and Beijing remain too frayed by recent developments. The current situation will likely persist, with Beijing taking potshots from the side while other countries try to save Ukraine’s autonomy.
The sanctions put on Russia because of the Ukraine crisis by the US and its allies might move Russian trade to China, says Harry Broadman, a former US trade negotiator, and World Bank official, to Reuters.
Reuters:
A review of World Bank and United Nations trade data shows that since lesser sanctions were imposed in 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, China has emerged as its biggest export destination.
New sanctions could prompt Russia to try to deepen its non-dollar denominated trade ties with Beijing in an effort to skirt the restrictions, said Harry Broadman, a former US trade negotiator and World Bank official with China and Russia experience.
“The problem with sanctions, especially involving an oil producer, which is what Russia is, will be leakage in the system,” Broadman said. “China may say, ‘We’re going to buy oil on the open market and if it’s Russian oil, so be it.’”
