Weblog with daily updates of the news on a frugal, fair and beautiful China, from the perspective of internet entrepreneur, new media advisor and president of the China Speakers Bureau Fons Tuinstra
China veteran Kaiser Kuo, host of the renowned Sinica Podcast, moderates a debate on China’s strategy in the global power transitions for the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China. Some of the key questions: How does the Russo-Ukrainian War affect China’s relations with its key partners? How has the Russo-Ukrainian War reshaped China’s economic capacity?
He is joined by
Klaus Larres, Distinguished Professor of History & International Affairs, University of
North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill, U.S.
Qiang Liu, Secretary-General of the Global Forum on Energy Security, Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, P.R.C.
Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Director of the China Studies Centre, Riga Stradins
University, Latvia
Dmytro Yefremov, Board Member, Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, Ukraine
Leading China economist Arthur Kroeber discusses the basis of the country’s economic growth and its relations with the US, at a panel of the Brown China Summit. Kroeber “explained that China’s alignment with Russia is an effort to erode the current U.S. global order in order to create more space for the two countries.”
The Brown Daily Herald:
Kroeber opened the discussion by explaining that Chinese economic growth is motivated by “improvements in the labor force, increases in capital and increases in productivity.” In recent years, the trajectory of the labor force and capital has been “going into reverse, and … (the Chinese government’s) obsession with top-down control is not ideal for productivity growth,” he said…
The panel also discussed the global economic and military repercussions of China’s potential involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “I think there’s a belief among many Chinese leaders that … the United States is hostile and they’re very powerful, but they’re also in decline,” Kroeber said. He explained that China’s alignment with Russia is an effort to erode the current U.S. global order in order to create more space for the two countries.
“From a long-term strategic perspective, it is hard to see this as anything other than a big mistake by China,” Kroeber added. “Its economic relationship with Russia … is very narrow and based on resources.
“Over a five to 10 year period, this (alignment) will probably come to be seen as a pretty major error of judgment,” he concluded.
In the ongoing war in Ukraine, China’s biggest fear is Russia becoming a democracy, says political analyst Victor Shih at a panel of the Brown China Summit. But “rationally, I agree that China would not intervene in any way,” says Shih.
The Brown Daily Herald:
Because of its shared border with Russia, China wants to avoid the possibility of Russia democratizing, Shih said. This creates a situation where Putin “can make bigger military gambles … knowing that financially, China’s going to come to its aid.”
“Rationally, I agree that China would not intervene in any way,” he added. “On the other hand, this (conflict) is a credible threat to China. … The situation is evolving, so I guess we’ll see.”
CFR scholar and China veteran Ian Johnson discusses the country’s difficult balancing act between keeping control and economic growth at a panel of the Council of Foreign Relations, with of course attention to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, COVID-19, and China’s agenda.
Author Zhang Lijia is shocked by the fake news in China’s media on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she reports while traveling in Northern Africa. “The first casualty of war is truth.” How true!”, she writes on her weblog.
Zhang Lijia:
“The first casualty of war is truth.” How true!
I’ve been following China’s coverage with fascination and disgust. Although China claims to be neutral on the matter and even offers itself as a peace maker, its media coverage has more or less been following the Russian line. To start with, instead of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it is termed as ‘Russian and Ukraine conflict’. It hardly mentions the immense suffering of the civilians in Ukraine or its people’s incredible courageous resistance, which moved the people around the world.
How ridiculous that China now blames the U.S and Nato for the invasion. See attached the screen shot of the Chinese article.
A professor Zhang Wenmu from Beihang University, a nationalistic academic, penned a piece “Why has Ukraine Nazi-ized”. There’s a lot of discussion on the topic on the internet. Again, it is ridiculous! The Ukraine president Zelensky is a Jew. Why would he want his country to Nazi-ized?
There’s been a lot of fake news. From a group on Wechat called Friends in London, someone posted a video clip about a week ago, showing Putin crying over the death of Russian soldiers and when their bodies were carried back to Russia, the ordinary people knelt down on the road side, to show their respect. Completely false! If Putin cares about his soldiers, he wouldn’t have sent them over to Ukraine. He is a narcissistic who is utterly indifferent to human sufferings.
The world has been utterly confused by China’s attitude to Russia and the war in Ukraine. One thing is sure, says China analyst Ian Johnsonin an opinion piece for CNN, we should not expect China to solve the war in Ukraine. “Becoming involved in foreigners’ disputes makes no sense. Better to stay out of the fray, see who is likely to win, and then cut deals,” Ian Johnson says.
Ian Johnson:
The war in Ukraine has prompted renewed appeals for China to get involved in an international crisis, with commentators discussing how the country is well-placed to negotiate an end to the fighting. Politicians have taken up the call too: the Ukrainian foreign minister reportedly asked China to get involved, while on Tuesday European leaders video-called Chinese leader Xi Jinping in an effort to keep him in the loop.
These ideas all make good sense — but are likely to fail. That’s because China, far from being able to act decisively on the world stage, suffers from a chronic leadership void that leaves it paralyzed to act in the face of global crises….
It is illusory to think that China can play a constructive role in Ukraine. On paper, it makes sense. China is Russia’s last major market now that the West has largely cut ties with them. Xi’s diplomats could easily get Russia’s ear and suggest, ever so subtly, that some sort of settlement would be beneficial to all sides.
It would also be in China’s best interests to take such a step. China grew rich in the international order that Putin seeks to destroy. Ultimately it needs to compete with the world’s leading countries, and to do that it needs an open world system with a free flow of capital and ideas. Slumming it with dysfunctional states like Russia only drags China down.
This could still happen, and China might set aside its domestic priorities to help end the crisis. But doing so would require a seismic shift. Playing the middleman would require China to distance itself from Russia, after boasting that their friendship has “no limits.”
Instead, China is likely to act neutral but continue to show most of its sympathy for Russia, not Ukraine or the democracies fighting to save its independence.
That’s because everything Xi has implemented at home has been to stifle free thought, not unleash it. He views the democratic world with similar distrust. He hopes China will supplant them but with home-grown innovation and not a robust exchange of ideas and products. It is a self-centered world vision, one where ties are mainly zero-sum: you win, I lose.
In this context, if the West is embroiled in a dispute with Russia over Europe, then China wins. Becoming involved in foreigners’ disputes makes no sense. Better to stay out of the fray, see who is likely to win, and then cut deals.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised multiple questions on China’s relationship with Russia, Taiwan, and the USA. CFR-scholar Ian Johnsonlooks at the CFR-blog at a wide range of the international fallout of recent affairs. And can and will China bail out Putin from the economic and financial sanctions?
Ian Johnson:
Could China’s economic relationship with Russia make sanctions ineffective?
It is unlikely that China immediately offers aid to Russia, but it could easily become the long-term buyer of gas and other resources that Russia can’t sell to Western countries. On Friday, it announced that it would loosen restrictions on Russian grain imports, but this had been in the works for some time.
Overall, changing the flow of resources will not happen overnight. Pipelines take many years to construct, so China can’t suddenly step in to buy sanctioned goods, such as natural gas that would have been carried by the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. But in the coming years, China can offset sanctions by becoming a no-questions-asked buyer of Russian resources.
Could Putin’s invasion embolden Xi to increase pressure on Taiwan?
China’s foreign ministry has said clearly that Ukraine and Taiwan are not the same. While China views Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory, it considers Ukraine a fully sovereign country. But on a deeper level, the logic is similar.
Both the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation are descendants of large, continental, multiethnic empires. The twentieth century saw China lose Mongolia and Taiwan in the aftermath of the Qing dynasty’s collapse. China no longer claims Mongolia, but it still wants Taiwan and hasn’t ruled out taking it by force. Russia fared worse when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It lost most of Central Asia, as well as territories in Europe, including the Baltic states, many parts of the Caucasus, Belarus, and Ukraine. Russia seems to have given up on recapturing Central Asia (content, perhaps, to have loyal strongmen run those countries) but clearly wants segments of its European territories back.
Russia’s situation is something nationalists in China can clearly identify with. So if Russia can grab chunks of Ukraine or install a puppet regime and withstand economic sanctions, that could embolden nationalists in China to look to Taiwan and think they could do the same.
Is the United States likely to work with China in responding to the invasion?
In an ideal world, the United States would be able to restart high-level dialogue with China. It could then remind Beijing that its future is as a global leader, engaging and competing with advanced countries, not slumming with energy-state autocracies such as Russia.
But there is little hope of this happening, because ties between Washington and Beijing remain too frayed by recent developments. The current situation will likely persist, with Beijing taking potshots from the side while other countries try to save Ukraine’s autonomy.
The sanctions put on Russia because of the Ukraine crisis by the US and its allies might move Russian trade to China, says Harry Broadman, a former US trade negotiator, and World Bank official, to Reuters.
Reuters:
A review of World Bank and United Nations trade data shows that since lesser sanctions were imposed in 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, China has emerged as its biggest export destination.
New sanctions could prompt Russia to try to deepen its non-dollar denominated trade ties with Beijing in an effort to skirt the restrictions, said Harry Broadman, a former US trade negotiator and World Bank official with China and Russia experience.
“The problem with sanctions, especially involving an oil producer, which is what Russia is, will be leakage in the system,” Broadman said. “China may say, ‘We’re going to buy oil on the open market and if it’s Russian oil, so be it.’”
In a remarkable move Twitter and Facebook removed this week China-based accounts spreading fake news on Hong Kong. Political analyst Victor Shih looks in Politico at the effect of this new policy against Russian-style fake news.
Politico:
The accounts suspended by Twitter and Facebook on Monday were not linked to China’s state-run media organisations.
Rather they were part of a network of fake accounts whose described tactics appear akin to the Russian misinformation campaigns coordinated to sway American public opinion in the lead-up the 2016 U.S. election.
“China is copying Russia and has set up a large number of accounts on Facebook and Twitter to pump out anti-protester propaganda filled with factually untrue statements and pictures. [Such accounts are] an attempt to polarise opinion, which Twitter and Facebook have publicly stated they don’t want to do, so they are acting on their new policies,” said Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California, San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.
He noted that the platforms had tightened regulations following “blowback” after the 2016 poll.
“They increased the level and awareness and [changed] the algorithm that they are using to catch manufactured campaigns for a political end, especially a violent political end,” Shih added.
Facebook on Monday removed seven pages, three groups and five accounts involved in “coordinated inauthentic behaviour as part of a small network that originated in China and focused on Hong Kong”.
Alibaba has invested more than $4 billion in Southeast Asian e-commerce group Lazada and other leading tech players in recent years. In June, the company posted that it had bought a stake in Turkey’s local leader Trendyol, while Amazon is still fumbling with the launch of a Turkish service. In India, Alibaba recently invested in digital payments platform Paytm, granting in exchange access to its cloud infrastructure.
Alibaba’s experience building China’s e-commerce market effectively from scratch makes it uniquely suited to entering these markets, according to Ashley Dudarenok, a Chinese digital marketing consultant who is herself a Russian national.
“They are aware that there is not much infrastructure in markets like India and Turkey, and they know exactly how to deal with this sort of aspirational consumer base,” says Dudarenok. “Along with countries in Southeast Asia, Russia is one such market.”
It may be still be poor by Western standards, but Russia has the largest population in Europe and an emerging middle class that offers significant growth potential. As elsewhere, Alibaba is planting its seeds early, ready to reap the rewards when the consumer market matures.
The political debate in the US has become rough, and some fear a return of McCarthyism from the 1950s when everybody linked to Russia feared prosecution. Now China too has come into the equation, and political methods move into the same direction, says China analyst Kaiser Kuoto the US World&News Report.
The US World&News Report:
With public concern heightened about the intentions of Beijing and Moscow, experts who spoke with U.S. News say that the letter sent to the NRDC suggests that U.S. organizations are now facing the prospect of similar scrutiny – and may signal the rise of a new tactic that brands perceived political opponents as Chinese or Russian fronts.
“Of course, that‘s what‘s going to happen. That‘s what happens in a McCarthyist witch hunt. This is the template, right?” says Kaiser Kuo, a freelance writer and former director of international communications for the Chinese search engine Baidu, who frequently writes about and hosts a podcast on China. “I don‘t think it‘s risen to that yet. But we‘re teetering toward it. And I do worry.”
In her response, Denham’s spokeswoman cited news reports that a staffer who once worked for U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein had a connection to Chinese spying.
Victor Shih, an associate professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at UC San Diego, said, however, there’s no indication the staffer had any role in election interference.
Shih said another matter from the 1990s, and not cited by Denham’s office, does show one "clear case of China trying to influence elections."
In 1996, Johnny Chung, a Taiwanese-born California businessman, pleaded guilty to illegally funneling money from China to President Bill Clinton and the Democratic National Committee during Clinton’s re-election campaign.
Chung later testified before Congress that the donations included $35,000 from the head of China's military intelligence agency to Clinton’s successful reelection effort.
The FBI even warned six members of Congress at the time: "We have reason to believe that the government of China may try to make contributions to members of Congress through Asian donors."
Shih and the other experts we contacted said, however, the Chung matter does not represent a widespread, persistent effort by China to interfere in U.S. elections. China is suspected, he added, of conducting a recent and broad political influence campaign in Australia.
"Meddling, of course, there are some cases of it (by China in the United States)," Shih said. "But to say that it’s pervasive or everywhere, I think it’s a bit of a stretch."
Is China going to replace the US as the global superpower in the near future? No, says China watcher Kaiser Kuo in SupChina. "Even if China and the U.S. continue to grow at roughly their current rates, China’s per capita GDP won’t have overtaken that of the U.S."
Kaiser Kuo:
No, China will not likely be the sole superpower on earth by the year 2030. Even if China and the U.S. continue to grow at roughly their current rates, China’s per capita GDP won’t have overtaken that of the U.S. If Chinese military spending continues at its current rate of growth as a percentage of GDP, even if the U.S. cuts back, it will still dwarf China in military spending. By almost any measure of ability to project military power globally, China will still likely lag behind the U.S.: It won’t possess nearly so large a blue water navy, will lag behind the U.S. significantly in long-range bombers, and will still have a nuclear force only a fraction of the size of the U.S.’s. Culturally, it’s very difficult to imagine that in only 12 years, China’s share of global cultural mind space will rival that of the U.S.
China has only begun to actually think of itself as a superpower. I think historians will look back and see 2008 as an important inflection point, and 2017 perhaps as the year that (with Trump’s inauguration in January and Xi’s “New Era” enshrined in the Communist Party’s constitution) China’s arrival as a superpower was generally acknowledged. The U.S. may appear to be in decline, but it has a long, long way to fall. Probably never before in human history has one polity held the preponderance of comprehensive power — military, technological, economic, cultural — that the U.S. has held from the end of World War II to the present.
When it comes to caviar, China seems to be able to become a major producer, despite its reputation of food-scandals, says business analyst Shaun Reinin Bloomberg. A boycott of both other producers, Iran and Russia, does help too, he adds.
Bloomberg:
Mention China alongside almost any food product, and people get nervous. After international incidents involving bleach-soaked meat, antifreeze-laced apple juice, and pine nuts “unfit for human consumption,” the country “is known for tainted food because of repeated quality-control scandals,” says Shaun Rein, managing director for the China Market Research Group.
Kaluga Queen, which produces its caviar about 300 miles southwest of Shanghai, is mindful of these associations
“The biggest obstacle is the low trust of Chinese food safety,” says Lily Liu, marketing manager for parent company Hangzhou Qiandaohu Xunlong Sci-tech Co....
Until recently, Russia and Iran dominated the caviar export market, harvesting the delectable eggs from beluga sturgeon in the Caspian Sea. Overfishing there eventually landed them on the endangered species list, and as supply dwindled, other nations, including Japan, Israel, and China, have started to fill the gap.
“Exports of Chinese caviar will boom because of sanctions and limited supplies from Iran and Russia,” Rein says. “Many restaurateurs will buy Chinese caviar because of good quality, reasonable price, and ample stock.”
Who is hacking who, we asked ourselves last month in the China Weekly Hangout, after China was accused of being the center of many global cyber attacks. Last week at the German CEBIT, a German organization disclosed a global overview of where the attacks from last month are coming from. China takes only a poor 12th spot, after other rogue countries like Russia and Germany. (The data might vary, since the investigation is an ongoing, real time one.)
The global operation is set up by German telecom provider Deutsche Telecom, who has installed 97 so-called 'honey-pots', who sniff out cyber attacks, so the company can prepare itself, and its clients for attacks.
The number two on the list is Taiwan, politically correct described as a Chinese province, is the source of 900,000 attacks. Mainland China only slightly over 150,000. Even the US is, with over 350,000 attacks, a major source of cyber attacks. Other site come up with other data, and in every case it might make sense to open the machine and see how it works.
I leave it up to the engineers to look into the technicalities (is it by accident that a German site discovers so many German attacks?). Are they missing some kinds of attacks? It puts the whole hacking discussion a bit more in perspective.
What analysts do know is that China’s military is upgrading its Xian H-6 medium-range bomber, a licensed variant of the Tu-16. The upgrade, known as the H-6K, includes a re-engineered Russian NPO Saturn D-30KP turbofan engine, larger air intakes, die-electric nose radome and a redesigned flight deck. The engines boost its range to 3,500 kilometers and allow it to carry both land-attack cruise missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles.
Richard Fisher, a senior fellow of Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said China has begun outfitting the H-6K with a new supersonic, 400-kilometer-range anti-ship missile, YJ-12 Eagle Strike, which also might be outfitted on the Xian JH-7 Flying Leopard fighter-bomber and Shenyang J-11 fighters.
Fisher said he does not believe recent reports out of China that Russia may sell refurbished Tu-22M3s to China. China chose to upgrade the H-6 over offers to buy the Tu-22M3 over a decade ago, he said.
China is also developing a stealthier variant of the JH-7 fighter-bomber and reportedly developing a copy of the Russian Su-34 strike bomber, dubbed the J-17, Fisher said, “all of which would tend to deny funds for a purchase of Su-34s” from Russia.
The China Weekly Hangout will focus on Thursday 7 February on education: is it a goldmine or a black hole, and for who? For the students, the foreign institutions tapping into China, for the paying parents? Our announcement is here. You can register, ask questions or leave comments at our event page here.
