What means Trump’s victory for the China trade – Ashley Dudarenok

Ashley Dudarenok

Now the USA has elected Donald Trump as its next president, traders in China are bracing for another backlash, reports trade expert Ashley Dudarenok on its LinkedIn page. “Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports + 10-20% on other global goods would set US tariff levels at their highest since the 1940s,” she writes.

Ashley Dudarenok:

It’s official. Trump wins the US election. 🙈 Before the win was official, “Trump announces win (特朗普宣布胜选)” and related hashtags had already racked up 420 million views on Douyin. Many likened the election to a gender reveal party, with one comment saying, “Congratulations USA, it’s a boy!”  Meanwhile, many are focused on real impacts, asking, “Will gold prices drop?” 👇 More below.

With Trump back in office, China’s economic policymakers are bracing for a new wave of trade policy challenges.

📊 According to China Economist, a Trump victory could require China to increase fiscal stimulus by 10-20%. This is more than what might be needed under a Harris administration.

📊 Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports + 10-20% on other global goods would set US tariff levels at their highest since the 1940s.

📊 Out of 27 Chinese exporters with at least 15% of sales in the US that Reuters spoke with, 12 plan to speed up relocation if Trump returns to the White House.

📊 Four other companies, still based entirely in China, would open factories overseas if Trump raised tariffs. The remaining 11 had no specific plans but were concerned about losing US market access.

✔️ China’s approach will be crucial for its export sector and global supply chains as it navigates this new chapter in US-China trade relations.

✔️ The China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee is meeting in early November to finalize a stimulus plan size, likely making a decision by Friday, November 8.

More at LinkedIn.

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How sanctions on Russia might move its trade to China – Harry Broadman

 

Harry Broadman

The sanctions put on Russia because of the Ukraine crisis by the US and its allies might move Russian trade to China, says Harry Broadman, a former US trade negotiator, and World Bank official, to Reuters.

Reuters:

A review of World Bank and United Nations trade data shows that since lesser sanctions were imposed in 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, China has emerged as its biggest export destination.

New sanctions could prompt Russia to try to deepen its non-dollar denominated trade ties with Beijing in an effort to skirt the restrictions, said Harry Broadman, a former US trade negotiator and World Bank official with China and Russia experience.

“The problem with sanctions, especially involving an oil producer, which is what Russia is, will be leakage in the system,” Broadman said. “China may say, ‘We’re going to buy oil on the open market and if it’s Russian oil, so be it.’”

More at Reuters.

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How the WTO failed to enforce WTO-rules on China – Harry Broadman

 

Harry Broadman

China entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) was twenty years ago seen as a success for the global trade, but then the WTO was unable to enforce its rules onto its new member, says Harry Broadman, chief of staff of the US President’s council of economic advisers (1990-1991) and US assistant trade representative (1991-1993) in an interview with Politico. What are the options to deal with China in international trade?

Politico:

U.S. companies should have stepped up to call out unfair Chinese trading practices, but most did not out of fear of potential state reprisals, Broadman said.

“A lot of U.S. firms would come to us and they would complain about Chinese [imports] and say that we had to put in place safeguards, but they’d always add, ‘Don’t tell the Chinese that we came to you and told you this!’” said Broadman, now at the Berkeley Research Group. “They knew that if we started punishing the Chinese in a particular sector, they were going to know that it was Company X and Company Y [that complained].”

But he cautioned against perceptions that China’s WTO entry has been a universally one-sided losing proposition for U.S. businesses that invested in China and established operations there.

“You can see that the firms who are there today were largely the firms who have been there for the last 20 years and they wouldn’t be there if they were not making money,” Broadman said.

There are growing calls for the U.S. to demand meaningful accountability for China within the WTO system or to pursue fairer trade terms outside of it.

“We’re now at a point where Beijing is clearly in broad violation of its 2001 accession agreement,” Broadman said, proposing three options that China should be given: renegotiate its WTO membership terms, be shown the WTO “exit door,” or immediately execute its promised reforms.

Practically, however, the WTO may be incapable of bringing China’s unfair trading practices to heel because all 164 member nations — including China itself — need to accede to any new agreements.

More at Politico.

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China's post-corona problem: their customers are in trouble - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

China might be opening up slowly after its coronavirus crisis, but the problems are not over, warns super investor Jim Rogers at Platts, as most of their international customers are just at the start of their economic downturn.

Jim Rogers at Platts:

One of the biggest challenges for China as it emerges from the crisis will be their customers. China is one of the largest trading nations in the world. Now Europe is in trouble. Japan is in trouble. America is in trouble. Yes, Japan is opening up. China is opening up again, but their customers are in trouble. So the biggest challenge for China now is to find customers for their factories, for their companies, for everybody. That’s everybody’s problem, by the way.
Are there any other bright spots?
Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. China’s opening up and many other countries are already opening up. People in Sweden got sick – they are no worse off than other people health-wise but their economy has not suffered as badly. So it seems to me that one lesson from this is that, nobody wants to die. Nobody wants to get sick. But if you just look around what’s happening in the world, closing off does not seem to be the best solution. But we’ll know. We’ll know in a year or two.

More at Platts.

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China's grim trade outlook for 2019 - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

2019 does not look good for China's economy, says financial analyst Sara Hsu, as the effects on import and export of the trade war kick in, and China was experiencing a slowdown already before the trade war started. In the US specific industries are hard hit, like automotive, agriculture and tech, she adds.

More details on the declining automotive industry by Sara Hsu here.

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US does not want more market, but contain China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The disruption caused by trade tensions is not going to give the US more market share for American companies, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® to Bloomberg. And that is not what the US wants: "The USTR is not trying to bargain with Beijing: it is trying to force a deep change in behavior."

Bloomberg:

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office, along with national security officials labeling China a "strategic competitor" ultimately aren’t interested in things such as greater market access for American companies, says Arthur Kroeber, head of research at economic consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. Instead, these Trump administration elements are engaging in an effort to contain the growing sway of a state-driven Chinese economic model on the global stage, he argues. 

"The USTR is not trying to bargain with Beijing: it is trying to force a deep change in behavior," Kroeber wrote in a March 2 note. The policy "is to either get China to dismantle its industrial-policy edifice and conduct its economy more along Western lines, or failing that, ensure the U.S. defeats China in the race for technological supremacy." 

Kroeber added that "the odds are that the trade and security hawks will have the better of the battle in 2018" in the administration, unless supporters of globalization such as White House economic adviser Gary Cohn can organize greater support from U.S. companies with major China operations that could be under threat.

More in Bloomberg.

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Old trade warrior Robert Lighthizer leads the US fight against China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

Robert Lighthizer was sworn in as US trade representative in May last year. He is the key person to watch when a trade war between China and the US is developing, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

After scant progress was made in the first round of Comprehensive Economic Dialogue with Beijing in July – aimed at resolving trade issues – the US suspended the high-level talks. 

Last month, Lighthizer said there had been no effective result from senior-level dialogue between the two countries, and now the Trump administration is taking serious aim at the trade deficit with China, and considering further action to restrict Chinese involvement in its hi-tech sector. China’s trade surplus with the United States rose 8.6 per cent last year to a record high of US$275.8 billion, according to official Chinese data. 

“The combative Lighthizer is now firmly in control of the international trade and economics agenda,” said Arthur Kroeber, a founding partner with Gavekal Dragonomics.

“It was only in the second half of last year that the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wrested trade policy from more accommodating figures like Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and economic adviser Gary Cohn,” Kroeber said, describing Lighthizer as an “old trade warrior who cut his teeth battling Japan in the 1980s”.

More at the China China Morning Post.

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Expect no conciliatory tone from China - Victor Shih

Victor Shih

Pressure is up on US president Trump to act against China in trade issues. Trump has been avoiding harsh action up to now, and political analyst Victor Shih warns that with a major political conference ahead, moderation will not be high on the country's agenda, he tells Bloomberg.

Bloomberg:

After sending warm signals toward China early in his presidency, Trump appears to be dialing up pressure on the Chinese government to change its ways. At the same time, he has been reluctant to pull the trigger on steep import tariffs or quotas that would risk retaliation. Trump recently backed away from threats to slap tariffs on foreign steel, after he took heat from Group of 20 nations and U.S. businesses that said the move would raise costs. 

From China’s point of view, a more aggressive stance from the U.S. will be met in kind as the government gears up for a vital leadership transition at the 19th Party Congress later this year, according to Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California in San Diego. 

"One can basically expect tit-for-tat behavior from China through the congress," Shih said. "Perhaps China will begin a national security or cyber-security investigation on U.S.-made high-tech products. Perhaps even more."

More in Bloomberg.

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Xi-Trump trade deal might be over - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The deal between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on a mutual trade peace, reached a hundred days ago, might be over, and was not very realistic to start with, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® to the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

China’s trade surplus with the US was pegged at US$107 billion in the first four months of 2017, according to US Census Bureau data. That puts the surplus on course for a full-year 2017 imbalance on par with the US$347 billion recorded in 2016, which Trump used to back up his anti-China rhetoric before taking office in January. 

“Rumours continue to percolate that Trump is preparing for more aggressive trade action,” Arthur Kroeber, founding partner and managing director at Gavekal Dragonomics, said in a recent report. 

“The basic deal Trump thought he offered Xi at the Mar-a-Lago summit – a light touch on trade in exchange for more cooperation on North Korea – was absurdly unrealistic, given China’s obvious unwillingness to change its North Korea policy.” 

With reports due from the US Commerce Department on steel and aluminium trade and calls for more scrutiny of Chinese investments in the domestic tech sector, Trump has another card to play in Germany.

More in the South China Morning Post.

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Trump's dramatically changed view on China - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

US president Trump called during his election campaign China a currency manipulator and announced a 45% import tax on Chinese goods, but instead came up with a 100-day plan to work out friendly relations. Political analyst Sara Hsu discusses how the 100 day plan is developing, and why Trump changed his viewpoint.

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China's geopolitical adventures in Africa - Howard French

Howard French

Unlike the remembrance of the former colonial forces in Africa, China's current geopolitical adventures into the continent "Africans’ view of China “is still positive, but not as exuberant as it was”. says Howard French, author of China's Second Continent: How a Million Migrants Are Building a New Empire in Africa to Today Online.

Today Online:

Mr Howard French, whose book China’s Second Continent charts the experience of about one million Chinese entrepreneurs who have settled in Africa, agrees. “Africa has been a field where China can try various things in a very low-risk environment,” he says. “Africa has been a workshop of ideas that now have a much bigger scale and strategic significance.” 

A few numbers illustrate the shift. In 2000, China-Africa trade was a mere US$10 billion (S$13.8 billion). By 2014, that had risen more than 20 times to US$220 billion, according to the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, though it has fallen back because of lower commodity prices... 

Mr French says Africans’ view of China “is still positive, but not as exuberant as it was”. People welcome the infrastructure, he says. But they insist their governments should not be taken for a ride, either by overpaying, accepting shoddy work or allowing Chinese companies to use all their labour and materials. 

Africans resent it, he says, when corrupt governments inflate the price of projects — as has been alleged with the US$4 billion Mombasa-Nairobi railway, inaugurated this month — to make space for kickbacks. 

Still, he adds, Chinese companies have become more attuned to such issues than critics suggest. 

A decade ago, they thought that dealing with the government was enough. Now, they realise they also need to engage civil society and international non-governmental organisations on issues from local skills to the environment. 

Chinese companies like to be seen to be transferring skills. 

Huawei, which earns 15 per cent of its global revenue in Africa, trains 12,000 students in telecoms a year at centres in Angola, Congo, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. 

According to Johns Hopkins researchers, 80 per cent of workers on Chinese projects are African, even if many are in low-skilled jobs such as trench-digging. 

“I give the Chinese a fair amount of credit,” says Mr French. “They have been mounting quite a steep learning curve from almost no knowledge to becoming very sophisticated players.”

More at Today Online.

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More talks by Howard French on Africa at IDA.
 

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China-US trade deal: merely window dressing - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

The surprise trade deal between China and the US on beef and financial services is lacking real substance, tells economist Arthur Kroeber and author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® at USagnet.

USagnet:

"China has made a few modest concessions that cost it very little, in areas strategically picked to maximize the political benefit to Trump," said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics, an economic research firm in Beijing. "But the substantive impact on US-China trade and investment flows is pretty minimal."

More at USagnet.

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Trump can trigger anarchy in international relations - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

While Trump still has to make his mark on international relations, fears rise that he might disrupt international order in a gross way. Leading economist Arthur Kroeber says it might trigger off international anarchy where China will be unwilling to step into the void, according to the Globe&Mail.

The Globe&Mail:

Even if calm prevails, though, China shows little sign of willingness to supplant the U.S. as either architect or maintenance engineer of the specific ideas that gave rise to the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the like. 

If the U.S. under Mr. Trump begins to step away, then, “you end up with a fracturing order,” said Arthur Kroeber, a respected author and China analyst who is managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics. 

“Or, in the words of international relations theorists, you are in a more anarchic world, where the common projects that have bound different countries and regions together – those bonds become much weaker and it becomes much more a matter of individual countries pursuing their self-interest in somewhat narrow ways.”... 

Mr. Trump's presence in the White House means it is suddenly unclear the degree to which the U.S. will continue its position as the world’s chief buyer.

If that happens, don’t expect China to move in. 

“The Chinese have no interest in playing that role,” Mr. Kroeber said. “They have made it very, very clear that their own industrial strategy is to make sure they can basically produce everything and not be reliant on anyone else. And that is a huge difference. 

Because if you are now the world’s second-biggest economy and insist on running a trade surplus, you are essentially saying that everyone else in the world – or most major economies have to be in a deficit.” 

That, then, is the risk posed by Mr. Trump to the system of liberal globalization: that his presidency will be marked by the rise of both his own “Make America Great Again,” and its Asian counterpart, often enunciated by Mr. Xi himself: “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

More in the Globe&Mail.

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Trade balance: not a straight forward win-win - Victor Shih

Victor Shih

After the election of Donald Trump as US president and the possible derailment of Sino-US relations, other countries, like Canada, see opportunities in making trade deals. But striking a balance in trade relations is never straight forward, warns political analyst Victor Shih in the Globe&Mail.

The Globe&Mail:

New scholarship adds grounds for skepticism. In “The China shock,” a recent academic article, an international team of researchers showed that the extraordinary rise of Chinese exports since 2001 eradicated millions of U.S. jobs with only “extremely modest offsetting employment.” In other words, they found, after the decade of frenzied trade that followed China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, “U.S. net welfare gains are close to zero.” 

It suggests the need for “a more balanced view about the benefits and pitfalls of free trade,” said Victor Shih, a China scholar at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. 

Another point of caution lies in China today, which has pushed a plan called Made in China 2025 to massively grow domestic capacity in robots, aeronautical equipment, rail and advanced medical products, among others – some of which overlap with Canada’s areas of expertise. 

“It may not make so much sense to rush headlong into lowering trade barriers with China, because across a large number of sectors the Chinese government is heavily subsidizing industrial goods producers,” Prof. Shih said. 

“Politicians and voters really have to think about this carefully.”

More in the Globe&Mail.

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How Trump might improve China-US relations - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Many see president-elect Donald Trump as a disruptive force in international trade, after he decided to cancel the transpacific trade agreement TPP. But for the relations between China and the US, Trump might actually be a blessing in disguise and can deal with China´s protectionism and other issues, argues Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The End of Copycat China: The Rise of Creativity, Innovation, and Individualism in Asia for CNN.

Shaun Rein:

During the campaign, Trump demonized China over alleged currency manipulation and for stealing American jobs. To get tough on China he threatened to slap a 45% tariff on goods made there. 

However, contrary to the fears of many China's watchers who are put off by Trump, there are several reasons a Trump presidency might actually help US-China relations, lowering the risk of military tensions and buttressing US business interests. 

Because Trump is less concerned about diplomatic niceties, and doesn't appear to have an underlying strict foreign policy ideology, he can and should lobby for an end to protectionism in China. 

While Beijing seems to regard President Obama as a pushover, they won't be able to ignore a threatening and volatile Trump who fights for a fairer playing field for US firms.

Protectionism has always been a problem in China. 

US automakers like GM are forced to enter into joint ventures with state-owned enterprises rather than owning outright their production facilities. 

Banks and insurance companies like Citigroup are similarly hamstrung by regulations limiting ownership and business scope. 

For the internet sector, good luck trying to get into China -- websites from Facebook to Twitter to YouTube are all blocked in the name of national security. 

When China entered the World Trade Organization 15 years ago, protectionism was less of an issue when the market accounted for a relatively small proportion of the global economy and lumbering Chinese companies were playing catch up. 

But now, China is the world's second largest economy and has global champions like Huawei -- the world's largest producer of mobile phones -- or Wanda -- a real estate firm buying up Hollywood studios and cinemas -- that cannot be allowed unfettered access to the US market when American firms are left picking up scraps in China.

More at CNN.

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