The losing battle of China's censors - Maria Korolov

Maria Korolov

China might have the most sophisticated system to censor the internet, they can only till a certain degree mold the information internet users are getting, writes internet analyst Maria Korolov in Internet Evolution.

Maria Korolov:

Meanwhile, even at censorship rates of 90 percent, it means that 10 percent of those sensitive posts are getting through -- and with large numbers of people reposting and forwarding these reports, news can spread quickly despite all government attempts to control it. 

For example, in October, The New York Times ran a story on how the relatives of the prime minister of China were very rich -- to the tune of $2.7 billion rich. 

The prime minister's mother, for example, who was born in abject poverty, had $120 million in the bank. It was a big, embarrassing story -- and was immediately blocked in China. But not before China's social media users and bloggers got wind of it, and went to town. The information spread across the country in minutes, even as censors scurried to keep up. 

The thing is, it's really simple to convey information while avoiding key words. "You know that guy who runs everything? Him? His mother is now sooo rich..." Do you censor "guy"? "Mother"? 

The censors actually have to read everything. To censor effectively, you'd need a censor per person, reading everything they write, and looking for hidden meanings. So it makes sense that the censors prioritize, and focus on the stuff that's likely to cause the most turmoil or embarrassment.

More in Internet Evolution.

Maria Korolov is speaker and COO of the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request.

China new rulers: reformists by default? - China Weekly Hangout

Xi Jinping 习近平 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

After the uneventful transition of power in China's Communist Party last week, first analyses are still coming in. Next week (this week would be too early), the China Weekly Hangout plans to focus on what we can learn from the names that emerged in the standing committee of the politburo. Or more important, of those who did not show up.
Thursday 29 November at 10pm Beijing Time, 3PM CET (Europe) and 9pm EST (US/Canada) who hope to get an eminent group of veteran China watchers together. Nobody has yet been invited, so feel free to volunteer. We hope to get at least a few of the usual suspects in the panel.

Of course, we will open with the question whether we can expect reform from the new rulers or not. Second, we will see what developments we can see on the second and third tier of China's new rulers, and explore whether that indicates a possible direction China is going to take.

The first analysis by Western media last week was pretty grim, as China watchers saw mainly the old guard flocking into the 7-man strong leading standing committee of the politburo. Apart from upcoming president Xi Jinping and upcoming premier Li Keqiang, who have been in line for this position for half a decade, all men are solid into their 60's. But as the chief editor Wang Xiangwei of the South China Morning Post pointed out, the reforms by previous Hu/Wen regime have been so meager, Xi Jinping would already by default become a reformer: a worse record might hardly be possible. (ping me if you hit a firewall at the SCMP, I have saved a copy of the article).
Wang argues that Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji, the predecessors of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, were the real reformers in China's recent history.
Wang Xiangwei is not an unsuspected source. He has always been accused of being a front man for the governmental propaganda tool the China Daily in the Hong Kong-based newspaper. But how you would look at his role - the South China Morning Post lost its position as a regional opinion leader over the past decades - he is certainly better positioned to have a look behind the scenes in Beijing than any of his predecessors.But movements on second and third tier levels might be more important; at least they offer some surprises.

• Reuters analyst Wei Gu noted how in the finance sector experience has been more important than a tendency to experiments. 
• The domestic security chief is no longer a part of the standing committee, causing suggestions that the powerful security apparatus had lost some of its leverage. 
• But long-term propaganda chief Liu Yunshan did make it. Liu not only caused the internet in China to work only marginally during the 18th Party Congress, he is a strongman behind 10 years of firm censorship in most sections of the media.
• Against all odds, Chen Deming, minister of economic affairs, did not make it into the politiburo, making it impossible for him to join the standing committee.  That triggered off many speculations about China's future trade policies.

Next week, we might see the fallout of the new nominees clearer than today, so we can make some predictions on where China is heading after the second crucial meeting of the National People's Congress in March 2013, where the transition will be finalized. We will announce a program and an event page later this week.

This week, on November 22, the China Weekly Hangout is about the future of nuclear power in China.
You can register at our event page here. (Two weeks earlier we missed the change in daylight saving time in the US and had to cancel.) First part will focus on the resumption of building nuclear power stations, the second part of the chances NIMBY protests can derail this ambitious program.

Earlier this month, the China Weekly Hangout looked back at the legacy of the ten-year Hu/Wen tenure with Janet Carmosky, Greg Anderson and Fons Tuinstra.

What after ten years of harmonious society? - China Weekly Hangout

Xi Jinping 习近平 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The China Weekly Hangout on Thursday November 1 will focus on the ten past years of a harmonious society under president Hu Jintao and premier Wen Jiabao, what has it meant, and what can we expect the coming eight years under upcoming president Xi Jinping?
Janet Carmosky will report from New York on the findings on the National Committee on US-China Relations China Town Hall, and add her own viewpoints too. In addition we hope to sign up with political scientist Greg Anderson, who is currently in Bologna, Italy and will try to sign up for the hangout.
Moderation is in the hands of Fons Tuinstra, president of the China Speakers Bureau, signing in from Brasschaat, Belgium.
Time of the broadcast will be from 10pm Beijing Time, 3pm CET (note the winter time in Europe has started) and 10pm EST (US).
Do let us know if you want to be included in any way into our hangout. You can register at our event page.

After last week's China Weekly Hangout (included), we have started a debate on the format of the CWH. There was consensus that our sessions of 40-50 minutes might be too much for the average attention span of our viewers. Most likely we are going to cut up the session into smaller segments, but do follow this weblog or our event page for this week for updates on the logistics.

What after eight years of harmonious society? - China Weekly Hangout

Back to Zhu Rongji's legacy? (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

On Thursday November 1 the China Weekly Hangout will look back at eight years of harmonious society. When Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao replaced the Jiang Zemin/Zhu Rongji team, it tried to capture its mandate with this beautiful but very vague concept of a "harmonious society".

Eight years down the road, we will ask ourselves whether we have a better clue of this concept. Relations between the poor and the rich did deteriorate, but the straightforward fight for economic growth from Jiang Zemin has certainly become more nuanced. Or did a harmonious society mean the political elite would not go after state-owned companies, like Zhu Rongji sometimes did, and gave those SOE's a free ride?
What does China need in the upcoming eight years? And what is it likely going to get?

We are still working on the guest list, but you can start raising your hand, sending comments and questions both publicly here at this space, or by email.

The China Weekly Hangout is held almost every Thursday on 10pm Beijing time, 4pm CEST (Europe) and 10am EST (US&Canada)

On Thursday 18 October we will at the China Weekly Hangout welcome David Wolf, the author of Making the Connection: The Peaceful Rise of China's Telecommunications Giants and Andrew Hupert, author of The Fragile Bridge: Conflict Management in Chinese Business for a discussion on the future of China's telecom giant Huawei, after last week's devastating report by the intelligence panel of US Congress.

The options for the China Weekly Hangout for 25 October are still under debate and announcements will follow suit. One of the options: how did the position of foreign correspondents in China change over the past decade. Interested? Let us know. 

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June 4th and later - Zhang Lijia

Zhang Lijia

Celebrity author Zhang Lijia of ""Socialism Is Great!": A Worker's Memoir of the New China" recalled yesterday at her weblog the dramatic events of June 4, 1989, and looks ahead at the future of China in the years to come.

Zhang Lijia:

I was still a rocket factory girl in Nanjing when the unprecedented democratic movement swept the nation in spring 1989. On May 28, I organised a big demonstration among fellow workers because I believed that we ought to have a say in how we were governed. A week later, at the darkest hour on June 4, the troops opened fire on their own people. 

Chen Xitong, Beijing’s mayor at the time, has described the bloody incident as “a regrettable tragedy that could have been avoided” in a book titled Conversation with Chen Xitong that has just been published in Hong Kong. Chen, regarded as a hardliner who was in favour of using force, was promoted after the crackdown but later disgraced on corruption charges. 

Why did Chen, 81, go out of his way to tell his side of the story now? I’m not sure I totally believe his version; it contradicts others’ accounts. But it is interesting to see he has betrayed the official line by denouncing the massacre. 

On May 28, 1989, I was inspired to take action after I watched moving TV images of workers marching in the rain. Although a manual labourer, I was patriotic and idealistic, like many youth of my generation. At this critical moment, I wanted to show my support, hoping that our leaders would listen... 

Few expect the next generation of leaders to address the June 4 issue any time soon. Part of the party apparatus, they know reopening the old wound may lead to more questions and criticism and therefore damage the regime’s credibility. In a long run, however, the perils of not giving people a voice are greater. 

There were many, complex reasons for the rise of the 1989 pro-democracy movement. People were dissatisfied with growing corruption and soaring inflation, and the lack of personal freedom and channels to express themselves. The students marching towards Tiananmen were like a spark thrown on to a pile of dry wood – soon people from all over the country joined in, shouting support and venting their grievances. 

Last December, the scenes of protesting farmers in Wukan, banners in hand, sparked memories of 1989 for me. More than ever today, the Chinese people are more aware of their rights and are more willing to fight for them. In March, Premier Wen Jiabao warned that, without political reforms, a historical tragedy like the Cultural Revolution may repeat itself. Isn’t it the same with the June 4 incident?

The full story at Zhang Lijia's weblog.

Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.
More on Zhang Lijia and China's moral crisis at Storify.

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Are China's new leaders ready for political reforms? - Zhang Lijia

Zhang Lijia

Ruling Prime Minister Wen Jiabao warned a few months ago the country needs real political reforms to avoid another Cultural Revolution. Is China's upcoming leadership ready for that tasks? Author and celebrity Zhang Lijia writes in the New York Times she has her doubts. 

Zhang Lijia:

And that’s the point. China needs serious political reforms: more democracy, rule of law, transparency, checks on power and a decentralized power structure. Only measures such as these can push China forward into becoming a strong, modern nation — and to avoid repeating past catastrophes. 

Wen was right: We need reform or we could end up too close to where we were 46 years ago. But the prime minister, who has only a few months left to his term, hasn’t elaborated upon what reforms he has in mind. In fact, he’s been talking of “reform” for years, and many other leaders also openly acknowledge that we need economic reform. 

Implementing real reforms, not merely a tweak here and there, will demand courage. Will Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, the two men who will most likely take power in the autumn, be up to it? 

I doubt it. They are selected to lead the nation because they’ve proven not only their ability to govern but also their loyalty to the regime. Like all top party leaders, they understand how to place the party’s honor before the country’s interest. This next generation of leaders is unlikely to rock the boat — and that’s unfortunate.

More in The New York Times.

Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

  More on Zhang Lijia and China's moral crisis at Storify.

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Party arrogance, worn thin - Bill Dodson

Prime-minister Wen Jiabao claimed an 11-day illness to explain why it took him so long to pay respect to the victims of the Wenzhou train crash. But always vigilant internet users noted Wen a day after the crash on official business, notes author Bill Dodson, who analyzes on his weblog the credibility crisis for the communist party.

The sophistication of Chinese users in the use of digital communications technology has matured beyond the online petitions that marked the melamine poisoning disaster, just after the 2008 Beijing Olympics, when milk laced with a cousin of plastic was fatal to a dozen children in China and harmed scores more.

This time really is different, with Weibo tweets and blogs and editors of online newspapers combining their efforts to make a concerted attack on the high-handedness and opacity with which the CPC has been operating for decades. Now, though, the “trust me I know what I’m doing and you’re just along for the ride” arrogance of the Party has worn thin as even the man on the street seems to be questioning whether China’s infrastructure development pace is too fast.

In China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Reshaping China and its Relationship with the World, Chapter 1, I write extensively about the use of the internet in China to flush out abuse of power in the government. This time, though, government censors seem to be on the side of the citizens. Chinese users are still criticizing, tweeting, blogging and investigating with abandon.

More at Bill Dodson's weblog

Bill Dodson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Inflation is _not_ under control - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

China's premier Wen Jiabao, Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs’ Asset Management, argued this, and an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada says inflation is under control, but our Shaun Rein begs to differ, in CNBC.

I asked my office landlord recently if rent would go up 10 percent when our contract ends at the end of this year. She laughed and told me 20-30 percent at least. Taxi prices will rise 20 percent in Shanghai and other cities soon. The Shanghai government has said taxi fares will be raised after the public discussion period in June. Fuel surcharges have also gone up in Shenzhen and Beijing.

Plus tax breaks implemented during the crisis are being rescinded. In other words, a perfect storm of rising wages, rents and commodities will force most companies to begin transferring prices to the end consumer. With brownouts set to hit 10 manufacturing oriented provinces this summer, pricing pressures will only continue.

In order to stave off potentially destabilizing inflation and a housing bubble, the government should leave tightening measures in place in the short-term. Until the U.S. dollar regains its strength or America ends its wars in the Middle East, causing commodity prices to drop, there is no way inflation is a short-term issue for China.

More arguments in CNBC.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Ai Weiwei, Hu jia release illustrate switch in China's EU relations

Image via Wikipedia

Premier Wen Jiabao

The release of two famous dissidents in China, Ai Weiwei and Hu Jia, comes - with all their restrictions - at a telling moment: premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Europe. While it remains difficult to connect such diverse events in Chinese politics very clearly, they do not happen without reason. In this case they might illustrate that China is emphasizing its EU relations over those with the US.

During my time as a foreign correspondent in China those high-profile releases seemed to happen more often. I do not have any statistics, but compared to the late 1990s, early this century, there simply seemed to be now less high-profile dissents that could be released. Since I was based in Shanghai, I did not close check the ongoing stream of foreign visitors to Beijing, but I knew that when high-profile dissidents would be released, high-place US visitors were due.

It was often even worse: most of these dissidents were rounded up in the weeks before those US visits to China, as if forces in China were looking for bargaining power ahead of such visits. I knew that when dissents were rounded up, I should look up the itinerary of US dignitaries. It was never hundred percent sure, who would be behind those arrests. Foreign media often blamed 'China' or the central government, but it was as likely a moment for rogue security forces to embarrass their central leadership in an effort to improve their own bargaining position towards the central government.

One thing was sure: this routine never happened when European leaders visited Beijing.

That routine was disrupted as the Hu Jintao crew took over from Jiang Zemin. Only the release of Ai Weiwei and Hu Jia brought back the memories about that practice, from a decade ago. While we will probably never know what is really going on behind the Chinese curtains, it is important to note that Wen Jiabao's visit to Europe triggered this off. Chinese support for the Euro and increased investments into Europe are other elements in this global changed from the US towards Europe.
(Earlier published in the Fons Tuinstra's home).

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Growth, not efficiency fuels economy - Arthur Kroeber

Image via Wikipedia

Even premier Wen Jiabao calls China's economy unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable, writes Reuters. But despite those misgivings, economic growth will steam ahead, adds economic analyst Arthur Kroeber.

"The tailwinds of growth are so strong. You've still got a lot of growth that can come in a fairly straightforward manner through completing infrastructure and heavy industry and urbanization," said Arthur Kroeber, managing director at GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy in Beijing.

"As long as you have a model where simply accumulating capital is your main source of growth and the efficiency with which that capital is used is not important, then all of these processes can continue unimpeded and they don't really obstruct growth," he said.

Once efficiency becomes imperative, however, China will struggle to convince vested interests, notably big state-owned companies that have benefited disproportionately from subsidies and stunted competition, of the need for reform.

"I would say that's a very, very serious risk because you don't have the kinds of institutions like a free press or regulatory agencies or NGOs that act as a check on these kinds of concentrations of financial power," Kroeber said.

"But that's more on a decade horizon than on a five-year horizon."

More in Reuters.

Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Democracy, a matter of the Party - Helen Wang

Helen Wang via Flickr

Helen Wang looks at the prospects of democracy in China, inside and outside the Communist Party. Both options do not look very viable, she writes in Forbes.
The Communist Party has picked up the best and the brightest, also from those returning from overseas.
Helen Wang:

In a trip to Shenzhen in August, Wen Jiaobao surprised many China watchers by saying that without political reform China may lose what it has already achieved economically. That view was reconfirmed in an interview with CNN on September 23, when Wen told Fareed Zakaria that “the people’s wishes for and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible.” I was particularly struck by his ending line: “I will not fall in spite of strong wind and harsh rain, and I will not yield till the last day of my life.”

But the leadership in Beijing was divided and Wen's efforts were shelved for the time being. Still, there is only one option for those who are looking for a change, as Wang concedes:

While the most competitive young people in America went into business, or even, in recent years, nonprofits, some of the brightest young people in China went into the government and joined the Communist Party. They recognized that the party is the only game in town and that party membership has significant advantages, such as career advancement, social status, or personal connections.

More in Forbes.

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Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Internet, a feedback system for the government - Jeremy Goldkorn

Jeremy Goldkorn by Fantake via Flickr

China's governments, central, provincial and local, are using the internet increasingly to listen what is happening in their huge country. So, internet analyst and Danwei.org owner Jeremy Goldkorn was not amazed when the central government started a website, allowing its citizens to talk directly to them, he tells CNN.

"The government has been aware of the power of the internet for some time and it has become a major way for the Party to gauge public opinions," said Jeremy Goldkorn, founder of the popular China media website Danwei.org.

Goldkorn cited two much-publicized live Internet chat sessions between netizens and Hu and Wen.

"Although politically incorrect messages will surely be censored on this board, there may still be a genuine feedback mechanism even for those posters," Goldkorn said.

The website was launched last week by the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist party.
More at CNN.

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Jeremy Goldkorn is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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