Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts

Thursday, August 27, 2015

How the government messed up financial markets - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber
Arthur Kroeber
The government has really messed up almost anything they did on the financial markets, says financial analyst Arthur Kroeber on NPR. Internal divisions between different factions did not help to make sound financial decisions.

NPR:
"In the stock market case, I think the government was really incompetent on several levels because they were actively promoting something that was really bad economically," says Arthur Kroeber, the head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economics research firm.... 
Kroeber says when stocks went south, the government lost its way. "They first encouraged an irrational bubble," he says. "Then they tried, unreasonably, to protect the market from the consequences of its own excesses. And then, having done that for two months, they kind of gave up." 
When the government devalued China's currency earlier this month, its performance was no better. 
Officials didn't immediately spell out their motives — sparking fears that China's economy was in worse shape than it appeared.... 
Why has the government made missteps this summer and struggled to manage its message? 
For one thing, it's harder and harder to control information in the information age — even in authoritarian China. But there is another reason, 
Kroeber says: Government officials are at odds on how to handle the economy and slowing growth. 
"There is very clearly a deep division within the government about how much structural economic reform needs to be done, and this is not a debate that has been clearly decided from one side or the other," he says. "So when you look at it from the outside, it looks like confusion."
More at NPR.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´ request form.

Are you interested in more stories by Arthur Kroeber? Check out this list.  

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Removing crosses meets growing resistance - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson
Ian Johnson
Since Chinese government agencies have started to remove crosses from churches - officially for security reasons - the resistance, and government backlash, has been growing. Focus is in Zhejiang province. Journalist Ian Johnson toured experts and made an update for the New York Times.

Ian Johnson:
The question many ask is whether the campaign against crosses has the backing of China’s top leader, President Xi Jinping, and whether it will therefore spread. Carsten Vala, a political scientist at Loyola University in Maryland, said the government drive fit into the overall context of a crackdown on civil liberties that has increased since Mr. Xi took power in 2012. 
“Along with the other limits on all of civil society, it’s in line with the newXi Jinping approach,” Professor Vala said. 
Mr. Xi was the head of Zhejiang, and the current party secretary there served under him. Other provinces with big Christian populations have not begun similar crackdowns.
Fan Yafeng, director of an independent research organization in Beijing that studies Christianity, said other provincial leaders were watching Zhejiang. If it appeared politically costly to remove the crosses, they might not follow suit, he said.
“But as Zhejiang’s removal of the cross campaign escalates, it has also triggered unprecedented backlash,” Mr. Fan said. The strong response from Christians had exceeded the government’s expectation, he said. 
Last year, numerous protests seemed to cause the government to back down. The number of cross removals slowed. Then in May, the Zhejiang provincial government declared that churches could not have free-standing crosses atop spires. In a 36-page set of directives, the government said crosses had to be set into the facade of the church, and could be no more than 10 percent of the building’s height. 
There were some indications over the weekend that the campaign might be slowing, with members of a congregation in Cangnan County south of Wenzhou saying their parish had received a notice that the campaign would stop. 
Some people attributed this to the upcoming military parades for the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. Others noted that the campaign had also slowed last year. One church member said that now that the government has set a benchmark — no free-standing spires — it would slowly grind on until all the spires in Zhejiang were removed.
More in the New York Times.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more experts in cultural change at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

China´s finance, between bears and bulls - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu
+Sara Hsu 
Last year China promised it would not bail out its unruly financial sector. It still did. It promised swiping financial reforms. They did not materialize. Financial analyst Sara Hsu discusses the current state of China´s finance and what the government should do. Asking questions are Chao Pan and Fons Tuinstra.

Sara Hsu is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you interested in more financial experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Check out our recent list.
 

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Real internet crackdown might backfire - Tom Doctoroff

Tom Doctoroff
Silencing the unruly voices at the internet might be high on the government's agenda, but an effective crackdown would only backfire, tells Tom Doctoroff in the Internetevolution.com

The internetevolution:
“The [Communist Party] leadership is very nervous,” says Shanghai-based Tom Doctoroff, author of the coming book, What Chinese Want. Fuel for anxiety is that, in midyear, China’s president and premier are scheduled to step down, and, says Doctoroff, “There is a lot of jockeying for position.”...
But:
“The government knows the people need ways to let off steam and that the Internet is an avenue for that,” he says. He elaborates that the Chinese-language Web is awash with “free pornography sites and violent video games,” and the government, in effect, pointedly ignores these outlets... 
Right now, vocal anti-government sentiments are largely limited to a tiny minority of disaffected youth, whose opinions do not matter that much. And yet the extraordinarily active microblogs give the government a clear window on the level of dissent -- and were they to truly censor postings, they would lose that. Says Doctoroff: “In the end, this [real-name requirement] may backfire for the government because they now listen to online grumbles before grievances turn into major protests. Now fewer people will dare to raise their voices, and the government will be denied a ‘polling device’ and exacerbate alienation from the people.” 
That is why many experts increasingly believe that the microblogging crackdown will be analogous to China’s faltering crackdowns on indoor smoking -- there will be plenty of noise, right up to the regime change, and then suddenly the issue will simply cease to be discussed. Until then, says Doctoroff, “I can’t imagine the government will be aggressive in enforcing any of this.” 
The smoking ban has resulted in Chinese people smoking wherever they please. And very probably, they will continue to microblog as they please, too. Besides, adds Doctoroff, for the overwhelming majority of Chinese microbloggers, 
“People are blogging not to protest, but to show off. They want to show they are cool people.”
More in the Internetevolution.com 

Tom Doctoroff is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting of conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form. More details about Tom Doctoroff and his upcoming book at Storify.
Enhanced by Zemanta

Friday, August 19, 2011

Corruption stifles genuine entrepreneurship - Victor Shih

victor shihVictor Shih
Political scientist Victor Shih looks in The Financial Times into the trial of government officials after the Shanghai fire, costing 58 lives last November. “A disturbing pattern of corruption, which is endangering the lives of millions around China.”
According to details released by the Chinese media, the Jing’an government invited bids for a project to insulate a teachers’ dormitory. Not surprisingly, a company wholly owned by the Jing’an District Government, the Jing’an Construction Company, “won” the bid, but then gave the Rmb30m project to its wholly owned subsidiary Jiayi Company, which had little experience in this kind of project.
After paying government officials bribes to obtain this contract, Jiayi proceeded to farm out various aspects of this project to sub-contractors who paid Jiayi management the highest bribes.
In some cases, the work was further sub-contracted to foremen, who also had to pay sub-contractors bribes. At every level, guanxi and the amount of bribes determined who received the contract, not quality, safety or track record. In the end, a welder, hired precisely because he was inexperienced and therefore cheap, accidentally dropped his torch, which set off the fire.
 His conclusions:
At minimum, two major reform needs to be carried out to reverse the corruption. First, the state economy continues to be sprawling and continues to enjoy soft-budget loans from the banks. This creates ample opportunities for connected insiders to set up dummy companies to take advantage of government contracts. Because senior managers of SOEs are not remunerated according to profit (and profit not tied to capability), they are only weakly incentivised to maximise profit but strongly incentivised to take advantage of rent-seeking opportunities, which allow them to privatise state wealth.
If large SOEs, including state banks, were genuinely privatised, owners of firms would be more interested in generating profit and even building the reputation for their own firms, instead of taking advantage of rent-seeking opportunities.
Of course, China’s weak regulatory environment is also to be blamed. With more transparent public oversight, a free media, and accountable officials, the tragedy in Shanghai could also have been avoided.
Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.
Enhanced by Zemanta

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Internet, a feedback system for the government - Jeremy Goldkorn

goldkorn_3Jeremy Goldkorn by Fantake via Flickr
China's governments, central, provincial and local, are using the internet increasingly to listen what is happening in their huge country. So, internet analyst and Danwei.org owner Jeremy Goldkorn was not amazed when the central government started a website, allowing its citizens to talk directly to them, he tells CNN.
"The government has been aware of the power of the internet for some time and it has become a major way for the Party to gauge public opinions," said Jeremy Goldkorn, founder of the popular China media website Danwei.org.
Goldkorn cited two much-publicized live Internet chat sessions between netizens and Hu and Wen.
"Although politically incorrect messages will surely be censored on this board, there may still be a genuine feedback mechanism even for those posters," Goldkorn said.
The website was launched last week by the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist party.
More at CNN.

Commercial
Jeremy Goldkorn is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

All is not yet well for China's economy - Wang Jianmao

Wang JianmaoWang Jianmao Fantake via Flickr
Economic growth seems to be on track and China has passed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, still stiff measures from the government are needed to avoid a second dip, warns CEIBS economy professor Wang Jianmao in CIB-magazine.
Historical statistics on economic growth have been quietly adjusted again, suggesting  the economy was severely overheated just before the global financial crisis took off, showing a seriously overheated economy, writes Wang Jianmao.
The best scenario of proactive adjustment is a U-shaped process of maintaining a moderate growth rate of 7-8% during 2010-2012 and then returning to the potential growth rate of about 9% in 2013. The worst scenario of reactive adjustment is a W-shaped process of propping up double-digit growth until 2012 and then unavoidably diving for a second dip below 5% or even 4%. 
The decision-makers in China should remember the lessons of reactive adjustment and hard landings of the past. China's economy experienced full-blown overheating during 1984 and 1985, with actual growth rate significantly higher than the potential one. After attempts at cooling the economy, the growth rate dropped to 8.8% in 1986, down from 13.5% in 1985, which was similar to the recent shrink in the growth rate from 14.4% in 2007 to 10.2% in 2008 and to 9.1% in 2009. However, the adjustment efforts taken then were not seen through to the end, causing the growth rate to rebound to 11.6% in 1987 and 11.3% in 1988. Then, a second dip became unavoidable and China eventually plunged into a hard landing with a growth rate as low as 4.1% in 1989 and 3.8% in 1990. 
Since China plays a prominent role in the global economy, a second dip of the Chinese economy would mean a second dip for the world. Therefore, a "slow" U-shaped recovery of the Chinese economy should be interpreted as a positive sign indicating that China is moving along the right path. A quick V-shaped recovery is only possible for those countries not severely burdened by flawed development models. Unfortunately China does not belong to this group.
More in the CIB magazine

Commercial
Professor Wang Jianmao is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your conference or meeting? Do get in touch.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Sex, porn and their lessons for business - Shaun Rein

shaunreinShaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein uses the lessons business can learn from the mixed messages the government is sending on porn and sex. On the internet it is porn crackdown all along the line, while sex and prostitution are everywhere commercially available.
The lesson is so obvious, many veterans like Shaun Rein forget to explain it to relative newcomers in China. In Forbes he makes up for that omission, The government is not one monolith with one message, but a conglomerate of competing interests, You have to be aware of this minefield of conflicting interests to survive in China. At a central level - and the internet is strictly controlled by that level - pornography and prostitution are not done.
At the local level police and other officials face different issues. Police and local officials are way underpaid and aren't allowed to move into the private sector after they've reached a certain rank. Even relatively senior local officials often make only several hundred dollars a month. They get lots of benefits, like housing and cars, but they don't have much personal money of their own. One result is that corrupt officials protect brothels for protection fees.
These corrupt officials and police don't want to lose that income, so they let brothels operate freely as long as they don't become hubs for more serious crimes, like drug sales, or violence--and as long as there isn't overwhelming political will to shut things down, as there was around the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and the run up to the World Expo in Shanghai this year. Many brothels throughout the country were shuttered in the three months leading up to the Olympics, but most were up and running again soon after.
More important lessons in Forbes.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Thursday, August 05, 2010

Stress tests but no stress for bank sector - Shaun Rein

Shaun2Shaun Rein     by Fantake via Flickr
Bot real estate prices and A-shares in China keep on getting investors attention, but as the country prepares for stress tests of their banks, Shaun Rein expects the government will be able to channel fears about the debts of central and local governments, he tells Bloomberg TV.
Rein foresees a soft lending for the real estate as sales dropped 70 percent over the past few months, indicating consumers are not taking too high risks. Total government debts is at 42 percent of China's GDP, much less than in some of the developed countries, putting it in a good position to deal with those debts with huge problems for the banks. Rein expects no problems as China will expose its banks to the stress tests earlier conducted in the US and Europe.
More at Bloomberg.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speakers at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.


Monday, August 02, 2010

The China blame game - Shaun Rein

shaunreinShaun Rein Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein addresses, after the country got wrongly accused last Friday of blocking all of Google's services, the China blame game many Western media play at this clip in CNBC.In the debate Rein gets actually told he acts like an apologist for China, but rebuts this blame-game very well.
Rein explains how important it is to dig a bit deeper when Western media reports talk about China and why we should not take all they write for granted.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.


Friday, July 30, 2010

Where China is hiding its debts - Victor Shih

shih08_3_1Victor Shih Fantake via Flickr
Professor Victor Shih from the Northwestern University is the main investigator, looking for China's sky high debts after its financial rescue operation. In Business Week Shih explains where China is hiding its debts, and why there might be more than even he can find, especially at the 8,000 local investment companies, who might have borrowed more than they can pay back.
Figuring out what projects the LICs have financed and how healthy they are is hard. Shih says LICs in the western city of Yinchuan, the capital of Ningxia autonomous region, have helped bankroll a building spree. New luxury villas and high-rise residential complexes, as well as a huge new soccer stadium, adorn the city. A science and technology center, a museum, and a library each occupy several football fields' worth of turf, while an almost-finished skyscraper resembles New York's Empire State Building. It's pretty ambitious for a region that depends on cash transfers from Beijing for 70 percent of its total revenues. Shih estimates Ningxia's debt at $15 billion—75 percent of the region's economy. "A soccer stadium in the middle of nowhere is not going to generate much cash flow," he says. "Without massive central government subsidies, I think many of these projects will not generate enough cash even to pay interest on their loans."
More in Business Week.

Commercial
Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

China's dilemma's in dealing with foreign firms - Shaun Rein

General ElectricImage via Wikipedia
China's central government is walking on a thin line when it defends itself against recent foreign accusations of protectionism against those foreign firms, tells Shaun Rein in Asia One. Senior executives of foreign firm, including Siemens, Google, General Electric and BASF have taken the lead in criticizing China's government, something that would be unthinkable, only a few years ago as those firm would fear - rightfully - a backlash.
In Asia One:
'I think they are emboldened because they feel now many people are coming out to complain,' said Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai. ...
Rein however said he does not believe the investment environment in China is any worse than it was a decade ago ' the market is just far more crucial to the foreign firms present in the world's most populous country.
'It's always been difficult to operate here,' Rein said.
'You have always had to transfer technology and have joint ventures, but it is a market that matters now.'
At last weekend's meeting with German businesses, Wen [Jiabao, China premier] rejected suggestions that the Asian giant did not provide a level playing field to foreign investors and insisted overseas businesses were not at a disadvantage.
Rein said he expected the Chinese government to ease restrictions on foreign firms in the next six to 12 months, as they try to walk a fine line between securing foreign investment and avoiding criticism at home.
'I think the government is very sensitive to be seen letting foreign companies making money off poor Chinese,' Rein said.
'They need to be protectionist for political reasons.'
Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Green tech: China's only way - Paul Denlinger

pauldenlingerPaul Denlinger via Flickr
Business analyst Paul Denlinger explains in Forbes why China has to go green, for offering its citizens a Western lifestyle, while preserving the environment at the same time. Becoming a dominant player in green technology is the country's only choice, argues Denlinger. It might not make China popular in the rest of the world, for example by its recent efforts to retain rare earth resources for itself, rather than export.
At the same time, Beijing wants to cut back rare earth exports to the rest of the world, instead encouraging domestic production into wind and solar products for export around the world. With patents on the new technology used in manufacturing, China would control the intellectual property and licensing on the products that would be used all over the world. If Beijing is able to do this, it would control the next generation of energy products used by the world for the next century.
More arguments in Forbes.

Commercial
Paul Denlinger is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference, do get in touch.

Friday, August 03, 2007

Raising the prices

Inflation is hitting the country and much of the debate focuses on price-hikes. China moved from the last period of stiff inflation in the 1990s into a situation that might sometimes more or less resemble those in a market economy. But how to deal with rising prices is an art that still dates from the planned economy, as Shanghai Scrap points out.
Time for some re-education of the officials who have to discover that price-fixing is not done in the open, but like in the West in secretive and illegal meetings that will be prosecuted when discovered by the government.
Meanwhile, prices are really going up. This week I saw the price of my breakfast, mostly a set of baozi's, go up from 0.8 rmb per piece to 1.0 rmb: more than twenty percent.

Update: And the government is starting to investigate price-fixing cartels. As they should.

Friday, July 13, 2007

The power pendule between central and local government

China Law Blog points at a remarkable analysis at the China Leadership Monitor by Dr. Barry Naughton. Key argument, the central government is getting more cloud over local government by asserting more influence on real estate, the major source of income for governments in China:

Since the beginning of the 2006 round of macroeconomic contraction, central government officials have evinced a willingness to directly criticize and confront local government officials over economic issues. As we noted in the previous issue of CLM, the State Council openly rebuked the government of Inner Mongolia for failing to mplement macroeconomic policies at an early stage of the contractionary policies.

This assertiveness has continued throughout the policy changes in land regulation, with a persistent willingness to state that the targets of increased regulation and oversight are local government officials.

Of course, the fall of Shanghai's party secretary Chen Liangyu plays an important part in his argument.
In short: I do not buy his argument and would rather see a central government that has so many priorities on its political agenda, its success depends very much on a negotiated balance it can strike with local governments rather than sheer power play. Local governments will never allow the central government to get too much influence in real estate, since much of the power of the local governments depend on that income from real estate.