Old trade warrior Robert Lighthizer leads the US fight against China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

Robert Lighthizer was sworn in as US trade representative in May last year. He is the key person to watch when a trade war between China and the US is developing, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

After scant progress was made in the first round of Comprehensive Economic Dialogue with Beijing in July – aimed at resolving trade issues – the US suspended the high-level talks. 

Last month, Lighthizer said there had been no effective result from senior-level dialogue between the two countries, and now the Trump administration is taking serious aim at the trade deficit with China, and considering further action to restrict Chinese involvement in its hi-tech sector. China’s trade surplus with the United States rose 8.6 per cent last year to a record high of US$275.8 billion, according to official Chinese data. 

“The combative Lighthizer is now firmly in control of the international trade and economics agenda,” said Arthur Kroeber, a founding partner with Gavekal Dragonomics.

“It was only in the second half of last year that the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wrested trade policy from more accommodating figures like Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and economic adviser Gary Cohn,” Kroeber said, describing Lighthizer as an “old trade warrior who cut his teeth battling Japan in the 1980s”.

More at the China China Morning Post.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form. 

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Why Trump's approach to trade deals fails - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

The world had one year to get used to Donald Trump's approach to trade deals: bilateral trade deals rather than plurilateral regional trade deals. Former World Bank official Harry Broadman explains for Forbes why Trump's approach for international deals is going to fail.

Harry Broadman:

In the year that he’s occupied the Oval Office, President Trump has left many eye-catching imprints on the way he has positioned the U.S. to act unilaterally with the rest of the world’s economies. Perhaps nothing is more notable in this context than the Negotiator-in-Chief’s penchant for championing the negotiation of bilateral trade deals. The May 2017 China-U.S. agreement was his first foray into this practice, which received far more press attention than it merited, and to date has borne little tangible fruit. And, overhanging the current renegotiation of NAFTA—a plurilateral regional trade agreement—is Trump’s threat, which I think of as "Threatenomics", to simply dissolve the treaty in whole and instead work out two separate bilateral agreements, one with Mexico and one with Canada. 

Trump has asserted he could potentially envision pursuit of broader multilateral trade deals based on the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) bedrock ‘Most Favored Nation’ (MFN) principle—where all 164 WTO signatories automatically are afforded uniform, non-discriminatory treatment. Such agreements, of course, stand in contrast to bilateral deals, where, by definition, the included parties treat each other on more favorable terms than either extends to all excluded countries. Hence why they are officially referred to as ‘preferential trade agreements’ (PTAs). 

But in his heart, Trump sees international trade negotiations as ‘Bilateral Man’—hardly surprising for someone who cut his teeth conducting real estate transactions in New York. Indeed, he’s noted on several occasions recently that he can get a far better bargain taking up trade agreements with other heads of state on a bilateral basis. 

Yet in the complex, nuanced world of international trade agreements, it really is not the “either or choice” Trump makes it out to be. The WTO specifically allows for preferential agreements—whether structured on a bilateral or a plurilateral, regional basis-- as long as they meet certain criteria specified within the WTO agreement. In fact, with the 2016 bilateral trade agreement between Japan and Myanmar now in place, allWTO members are party to PTA's in one form or another.

More in Forbes, full text republished with the kind approval of Harry Broadman TRUMP BILATERAL JAN 2018

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How to brand your message in China - Tom Doctoroff

Tom Doctoroff

Stability and tradition in China are much stronger over the generations than many outsiders assume, marketing guru Tom Doctoroff, author of What Chinese Want: Culture, Communism, and China's Modern Consumer, argues in this video clip for Amcham. Tensions between generations do exist in China too, but they are different from those elsewhere in the world, he argues.

Tom Doctoroff is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Alibaba needs older customers to maintain growth - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

E-commerce giant Alibaba launched this week a special app for the older people at Taobao, its online shopping website. A logical step, says retail analyst Ben Cavender to Reuters. “It’s easier now than it was in the past to get some of these older users to actually open up their wallets and spend.”

Reuters:

The company on Wednesday announced the launch of an “elderly friendly” version of its shopping app Taobao after causing an online stir this month by posting job adverts for candidates over 60 to act as consultants to promote the app and provide feedback. 

“The big motivator here is that their revenue growth is slowing,” said Benjamin Cavender, Shanghai-based principal at China Market Research Group. “It’s easier now than it was in the past to get some of these older users to actually open up their wallets and spend.” 

Trying to appeal to the elderly fits in with Alibaba’s $10 billion-plus spending spree to raise its presence in brick-and-mortar stores, which are frequented more often by older shoppers.

More at Reuters.

Ben Cavender is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Tencent's investment positive for Wanda - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Dalian Wanda Group’s commercial property arm secured a US$5.4 billion investment from a group led by tech giant Tencent Holdings, a major move for the troubled real estate giant, hoping to get a Shanghai IPO, says business analyst Ben Cavender to Reuters.

Reuters:

The 34 billion yuan deal for a 14 percent stake in Wanda Commercial could also help the unit get back on track with a plan to relist in Shanghai after a bold and ultimately expensive decision to withdraw from the Hong Kong exchange in 2016. 

“From Wanda’s perspective it seems a good deal. They’ve overextended with expansions and acquisitions over the last couple of years,” said Ben Cavender, Shanghai-based principal at China Market Research Group, adding that Wanda Commercial had now become a more “attractive mainland IPO candidate”. 

The stake will be bought from existing investors who had been part of the $4.4 billion buyout fund created for Wanda Commercial’s delisting in 2016. Those investors had been promised up to 12 percent annual interest if it failed to relist in Shanghai within two years. 

The Shanghai IPO has, however, been held up by mainland regulatory measures to tighten liquidity in the real estate sector. Wanda said in a statement that with its new investors it was looking to take the unit public “as soon as possible”. 

The Tencent-led group includes major retailer Suning Commerce Group, e-commerce firm JD.com Inc and rival developer Sunac China, which bought some of Wanda’s theme park assets last year. 

“The tech companies are seen as the darlings of China’s emergence as a global superpower. So, reputation-wise I think this is a good move for Wanda,” Cavender said.

More at Reuters. Ben Cavender is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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How the Vatican changed its position to China - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

The Roman Catholic Church at the Vatican has shocked its communities in China by asking two "underground" bishops by complying to the country's rulers. Journalist Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao, tries to make sense out of the move for the New York Times.

Ian Johnson:

In a statement released on Monday, the former bishop of Hong Kong, Cardinal Joseph Zen, confirmed the broad outlines of the Vatican’s recent efforts, writing that he traveled to Rome this month to personally deliver to the pope a letter from an underground bishop who had refused to resign. 

The letter came from Bishop Zhuang Jianjian of the southern Chinese city of Shantou, an 88-year-old who had been secretly ordained in 2006 with Vatican approval. 

In December, Bishop Zhuang was escorted by government officials to Beijing, where he was taken to the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse to meet a papal delegation believed to have been headed by Archbishop Claudio Maria Celli, who leads the Vatican’s China negotiating team... 

In his statement on Monday, Cardinal Zen said that when he delivered Bishop Zhuang’s letter to the pope, the pontiff expressed sympathy for the underground bishops, telling the cardinal that his negotiators should not “create another Mindszenty case,” a reference to a pro-democracy bishop in Hungary who was forced out of his country in 1956 and replaced with a person acceptable to the government. 

Cardinal Zen wrote that he had been heartened by the words. “I was there in the presence of the Holy Father representing my suffering brothers in China,” he said. “His words should be rightly understood as of consolation and encouragement more for them than for me.” 

The Rev. Bernardo Cervellera, the editor of Asianews.it, said the developments showed that Vatican negotiators were prepared to give the Chinese government “carte blanche, and accept all requests and pose no opposition on questions that affect the church in China.” 

But Father Cervellera said the pope’s reported comments to Cardinal Zen may have signaled that he was not entirely in agreement with his negotiators. 

People following the issue said that the highly unusual series of events showed how badly the Vatican wanted a deal. 

“The fact that both sides can carry on the negotiation till now shows that the Vatican must consider this a rare opportunity,” said Wang Meixiu, a researcher on Chinese Catholicism at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. 

Dr. Chen (Dr. Chen Tsung-ming, research director at the Ferdinand Verbiest Institute) in Belgium said that one reason for the Vatican’s eagerness was a sense that the faith had been growing relatively slowly compared with other religions in China. While the number of Protestants has grown from one million in 1949 to at least 50 million today, the number of Catholics has largely tracked population growth, increasing from three million in that period to at most 12 million today, in part because of the schism in the Chinese Catholic Church. 

The pope’s background as a priest in the Society of Jesus may also play a role, Dr. Chen said. Jesuits arrived in China more than 400 years ago, establishing a permanent presence for the church on the mainland after several failed efforts in earlier centuries. But they did so by being extremely flexible and conforming to local norms — a point that may be informing the pope’s negotiating approach. 

“He has a sense of mission,” Dr. Chen said. “There’s a historic responsibility.”

More details in the New York Times.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Why BuzzFeed is likely to fail in China - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

News aggregator Jinri Toutiao agrees to distribute content from American media outlet BuzzFeed to a Chinese audience, the Sixth Tone reports. After failures to start media operations in China by Rupert Murdoch, Google, Yahoo, Facebook, Time Warner and Viacom - to mention a few - you can see business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order shaking his head in disbelieve, as he comments on the move.

The Sixth Tone:

ByteDance, Toutiao’s parent company, will publish BuzzFeed’s videos to hundreds of millions of users across multiple platforms, according to a statement released Thursday. The financial details of the licensing deal have not been disclosed. 

BuzzFeed, known for its fun and often viral content, will have to “jump through some regulatory hoops” to be successful in China, said Shaun Rein, founder of the Shanghai-based consulting firm China Market Research Group and author of the book “The War for China’s Wallet.” 

“The risks are really high, to be honest,” Rein told Sixth Tone. In addition to creating eye-catching content, he added, BuzzFeed does not tend to shy away from tackling weighty political issues.

More in the Sixth Tone. Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at you your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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The self-driving car: the next disruptive tool - Mark Schaub

Mark Schaub

No tool has changed life in China more than the smartphone, with 640 million users and counting in less than a decade. But a new device is possibly disrupting - and improving - life even more, writes Shanghai-based lawyer Mark Schaub in the China Law Insight: the self-driving car. He paints the upcoming changes, and the way China's government is promoting that change.

Mark Schaub:  

There is probably no nation which loves smartphones more dearly than China – all 640 million of them.  In China smartphones are used to pay bills, make bank transfers, buy a coffee, hail a taxi, organize a train ticket, order food delivery, hire a house cleaner, hire a chef, messaging, browse the internet and in some rare cases they are even used to call people. 

If you look in any public place in China almost everyone has a device in hand and eyes intently glued to the screen. You see it when couples are on dates. Even when driving mopeds. 

The really amazing thing about smartphones is not that they are widespread (they are great) but how quickly this happened. The first Apple iPhone was launched in only 2007.  At the time of launch there were many disbelievers: Steve Ballmer of Microsoft said “No chance of any significant market share”, the Nokia CEO said “It doesn’t change our thinking”. The smartphone shows that consumers can quickly adopt new technology. 

Adoption of autonomous vehicles will result in massive disruptions to market, rewriting of regulations, new challenges for infrastructure and new services will be adapted to this new “device”. These changes will only accelerate further adoption until these new “ride-able” devices will also become integral to our daily lives. 

The opportunities (and risks) of autonomous cars for automobile manufacturers and their suppliers are readily apparent. However, there is also a tremendous opportunity for service providers in developing services for autonomous vehicles. Between them the two largest Application (APP) platforms in the world, Google Play and Apple, have over 5 million APPs available (although there is a degree of overlap between Android and Apple versions of the same APPs)[1]. 

Many of these APPs would be applicable to driverless cars and many new ones with novel functions will spring up. Traditional APPs such as looking up the weather or watching a streaming movie will also be applicable to driverless cars, but new more specific functions will be required such as more detailed mapping, parking and traffic information as well as tracking fuel and various other automobile consumables and location of service providers to refill such consumables. Ultimately, a driverless car is pointless if it still needs a driver to perform these functions. Accordingly, fully integrating driverless cars into the Internet of Things (“IoT”) revolution will allow for interoperability between your car and the relevant service providers. These cars will need to fill up, park and go in for maintenance without human guidance. Freeing up drivers from these tasks will pose a challenge for the widespread adoption of driverless cars but also provides opportunities for service providers.

More in the China Law Insight.

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How to deal with China as a partner - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order defines three different relations China can have with other countries: hot, warm or cold partners. From Cambodia he reports how a hot partner like Cambodia can deal with its powerful neighbor, according to the Phnom Penh Post. 

The Phnom Penh Post:

 I don’t think China is trying to forge alliances; instead, it is looking to use economic carrots and sticks to convince countries to either do its political bidding (a Hot Partner country like Hungary, Ethiopia or Cambodia) or to punish countries that cross it politically (a Cold Partner country like India or the Philippines and the Aquino administration). It knows it can never be truly close with any country in the long-term, so instead it tries to dole out low-interest loans and infrastructure investments to countries to make them open to China’s political aims in the short term. Meanwhile, countries that cross China politically, as South Korea did by installing Thaad missiles, get punished. China blocked Chinese tour groups from visiting South Korea last April, causing a 40 percent drop in annual tourist visits and crippling the South Korean economy. 

If Cambodia is a ‘hot partner’ with China, what does this mean for Cambodia’s economy and development? And what does China gain from the relationship?  

Cambodia’s [Prime Minister] Hun Sen has been quite savvy in his dealings with China over the past decade. He has supported China’s views on the South China Sea during summits of Asean. Having a supportive country in Asean like Cambodia is to counter criticism of China’s policies by countries like Vietnam or the Philippines, and causes China to look to invest more in infrastructure development in Cambodia and to give it low-interest loans. Moreover, the Chinese government uses its control of the state-owned media to tout the historical landmarks in Cambodia like Angkor Wat. Right now, Cambodia is one of the top destinations Chinese tourists want to visit. I am very bullish on Cambodia’s ability to attract Chinese tourists to its landmarks and high rollers to its casinos. This is all gained by being a friend of China in the “hot partner” category. 

One of the problems of becoming a “hot partner” country is that these countries often become too dependent on China economically and start to lose political independence. China’s economy is so large that if a country gets punished for crossing China politically, then it will have a real impact, as in the South Korean case. 

On the one hand, it is good to get close to China politically, as nations will reap economic benefits, but it comes at a cost of losing political independence so countries should try to be close to China but also distance itself at times, as the United Kingdom or France has done, so that they are not viewed as lackeys of the Chinese government.

More in the Phnom Penh Post.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch  or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Religion: a way to restore some order in China - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

The less-than straightforward relation between China's communist rulers and religion is one of the complicated concepts author Ian Johnson of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao tries to explain. From repression, to tolerance and now moving to a idea to use religion to restore some order, that relationship has changed profoundly, he tells The Politic, although it varies depending on what religion you look at.

The Politic:

President Xi Jinping´s administration has embraced different traditions, including religious ones, that serve his party. Can you talk a little bit about this, what has he done, and why is it important now that he has been re-appointed for another five-year term? 

After he took power in 2012, he very quickly made a series of highly symbolic visits. He visited the hometown of Confucius in Qufu, and he prayed to Confucius. He made another visit to UNESCO in Paris and praised Buddhist tradition, and he also had public meetings with Buddhist leaders. So then, they began to push this propaganda campaign of the China dream—this is Xi Jinping’s signature slogan—and this dream is a national rejuvenation, but it’s also social justice, and they use traditional images and traditional ideas and concepts to promote that. 

That was the beginning of the efforts. This is one of the reasons he is very popular, and it’s probably because they feel that society went out of control. His campaign against corruption is very popular, [the thinking is], “Yes, we need to stop corruption, but we also we need some kind of frame to get society in order.” 

If you think about it broadly, you got the Mao Era, and the Reform Era, and then the government backed away from the control of society, and they let people do what they wanted to do as long as they didn’t challenge the government. By the 2000s, people thought that things had gotten out of control. The internet was coming up, [new] NGOs were forming, and they didn’t want the Party to be challenged. So, starting before Xi Jinping, but especially after he took power, there’s been this effort to reassert control over society. I think they see religion as a useful tool in the overall effort to restore some sort of order in society. 

From what I understand, in the 19th century, religion and politics were very intertwined. And now, apparently, it is becoming intertwined again, so how are people receiving these changes? And what are the implications of this? 

Well, I don’t think they can go all the way back. In the old system, the emperor was a quasi-deity, the son of heaven. 

One implication is that there are other religions in China besides the ones the government is happy to support. The government is comfortable with Buddhism, Daoism, these so-called traditional religions, but it is less comfortable with Christianity and Islam, which also have significant populations. I think this could be a source of tension in the future. Already there are quite Islamophobic bloggers who write against Islam and question whether Islam is part of China. Actually, Islam has been in China for over a thousand years, so it’s not like it arrived last year. And about half of the Christians of China are not part of the official church, they are part of unregistered churches. I think they want to make them register with the government, those roughly thirty million Christians, and that’s going to be difficult, it can cause a lot of tensions. 

Why do they oppose Christianity and Islam? 

I think they don’t oppose it per se. I think what they don’t like is the foreign influence, foreign ties. It is the same with NGOs. NGOs in China can form, but they can’t take foreign money. So, with Christianity and Islam, you have inherent foreign ties. In Catholicism, bishops must be appointed by the Vatican, and in Protestantism, you also have ties with global, Evangelical movements. They send, not missionaries, but trainers, especially Chinese-Americans who come with a tourist visa and then teach and train pastors. Then, Islam also has a really strong global component, for example with the pilgrimage to Mecca. Some countries also want to donate money to build mosques, and the government is always trying to limit that. 

More in The Politic.

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Rich more optimistic about China's future - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf

China's high-net-worth individuals are more optimistic about the country's economic development compared to last yet, says the Hurun Chinese Luxury Consumers Survey 2018, released on Wednesday, according to the China Daily. Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and chief researcher of Hurun, said that although China's GDP growth rate was 6.9 percent last year, which is slightly up from the 6.5 percent estimated by the central government at the beginning of 2017, it is enough to make a difference.

The China Daily:

The Shanghai-based Hurun Research Institute, which conducted the study, said that only 6 percent of the respondents were pessimistic on prospects, while that number was 9 percent a year ago. 

Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and chief researcher of Hurun, said that although China's GDP growth rate was 6.9 percent last year, which is slightly up from the 6.5 percent estimated by the central government at the beginning of 2017, it is enough to make a difference. 

As a result, 72 percent of the respondents－up from 65 percent last year－expected that China and the United States will run neck and neck in terms of economic development in the next decade. About 37 percent said that China is likely to overtake the US in 10 years, which is up from 28 percent a year ago. 

It is the 14th consecutive year that Hurun has released this list. About 58 percent of the surveyed high-net-worth individuals this year, who have not immigrated yet, expressed no such plans, a historic low since 2011. In addition, overseas investment dropped out from the top five personal investment channels. As explained by Hoogewerf, it reflects the rich individuals diverse interests in the domestic market. 

Liquor band Kweichow Moutai is the only Chinese brand that figures in the top 10 favorite brands for gifting. According to Hoogewerf, wealthy individuals' preference of brands for gifting has consolidated over time, which means that they are extremely loyal to certain brands and will not opt for a substitute easily even if the new products are a hit in the market. 

In terms of recreation and activities, sailing took the second spot among the activities that Chinese high net worth individuals want to try in the next three years, next to equestrianism.

More in the China Daily. Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Why AI works better on WeChat than on Facebook - William Bao Bean

William Bao Bean

Chinese companies are making great strides in using machine learning or AI. One of the reasons is that  China's WeChat is better fit than Facebook to integrate this disruptive tool, says William Bao Bean, director or the  Chinaccelerator to eMarketer about influencer marketing in China.

EMarketer:

Bean: One of our companies, OCheng, is applying AI to WeChat commerce. WeChat service accounts are allowed to send a message to their followers once a week. OCheng can take customer relationship management data, look at the content people are engaging with, their purchase history, etc., and use machine learning to personalize these weekly messages. Instead of sending one message to a million people, you can send a million messages that are unique to each user every week. 

eMarketer: Is this process entirely automated? 

Bean: The content has to be written around the products the marketer is pushing that week. But the way the messages are written and the offers that are being shown to each person are personalized through automation. And when users write back, an AI-assisted chatbot can answer their questions. You not only have personalized content going to each user, but you can also have one-on-one conversations with WeChat users without a human, or you can have a chatbot and human working together. 

eMarketer: What types of brands are working with the tech? 

Bean: The Richemont Group, Dunhill, Macallan and Sephora are some of the brands that are leveraging this type of technology to drive higher sales. It’s not some pie-in-the-sky platform for them—it’s about dollars and cents, and there’s real ROI [return on investment]. 

eMarketer: Is it easier to achieve this on WeChat than Facebook? 

Bean: You can do a lot more within WeChat because it’s a more open platform than Facebook. A lot of the techniques you use on WeChat you can also use on Facebook. Facebook should start catching up, but the difference is how the two platforms make money. WeChat makes money on transactions, whereas Facebook makes money on ads. Facebook wants to capture ad revenues, whereas [WeChat parent company] Tencent wants to capture the commerce aspect. Marketing is important, but the opportunity to capture a percentage of the transaction as opposed to a percentage of the marketing budget is a bigger opportunity over time. 

eMarketer: In what other areas is machine learning being deployed to improve marketing outcomes? 

Bean: Influencer marketing is big in China. Influencer platform Robin8 uses machine learning and natural language processing to analyze the content that key opinion leaders [KOLs] push out, and then analyze the impact—who’s engaging with that content. Robin8 can do end-to-end attribution from KOLs all the way through to purchases on WeChat. This gives marketers an idea of what kind of content from which KOL works with different types of users, and they can optimize their KOL buy.

More in eMarketer.

William Bao Bean is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form. Are you looking for more experts on innovation at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

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Time for a new approach of North Korea - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

North and South Korea have started talks, potentially defusing the tension in the region. Time for a new and more positive approach of China's unruly neighbor, says Harry Broadman, former PwC Emerging Markets Investment Leader; in Gulf News. For example by nurturing the country's private sector. It might be coming as a surprise for many, but North Korea does have a private sector, Broadman writes.

Harry Broadman:

The world has marvelled that South Korea and North Korea have had their first dialogue in two years, paving the way for the North’s participation in the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang County, South Korea. 

But few seem struck by the obvious lesson: a dose of incentives alongside the disincentives of sanctions championed by the US and passed unanimously by the UN Security Council, may well be the policy mix to pursue with Kim Jong-un. Without overstating the impact a changed prescription along these lines might have on Kim’s conduct, it’s hard not to argue that at this juncture the world surely needs to get far more creative in dealing with Pyongyang. 

To this end, one area that has a hope of progress is for the US and other members of the Security Council to support economic reforms that give life to North Korea’s nascent private sector. Indeed, this change in therapeutic approach could be just what the doctor ordered. It will shock most readers to know that North Korea already has a private sector, albeit of limited scale and scope. As best as those of us who assess such things can tell from the paucity of opportunities for first-hand observation in light of Pyongyang’s political regime. And, these businesses have begun to grow materially over the last decade. Arguably, they may well be ripe for nurturing.

More at the Gulf News.

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Our left-behind children - Zhang Lijia

Zhang Lijia

Millions of migrant workers left behind their children in their home villages, developing mostly unheard problems. Author Zhang Lijia, who earlier published Lotus: A Novel on prostitution in China, is now working on a book on this hidden drama, including epidemic suicide, and she started publishing their stories in the South China Morning Post.

Zhang Lijia:

Yuzhong is part of China’s lost generation known as the left-behind children. Last year, according to government statistics, there were 9.02 million minors who matched the profile of Yuzhong: rural children both of whose parents were working away from home or where one parent was working and the other did not have guardianship of them. A much wider definition, which counts all children with at least one parent as working away from home, would put the figure at 61 million. 

Wang Fuman, last week

Their plight was once again thrust into the national spotlight last week when a photo of Wang Fuman, 8, with frost covering his hair and eyebrows, went viral. Fuman had walked 4.5km (2.8 miles) in freezing temperatures – minus nine degrees Celsius (15 degrees Fahrenheit) – to school, and his story raised more than US$300,000 for the poor in China. 

But more often, stories about the left-behind children, who number close to Britain’s total population, don’t have such a happy ending. They have become a massive social problem that has produced a raft of tragedies that have shocked the entire nation. 

In June last year, four left-behind children from the same family, ranging from ages five to 13, committed suicide together by swallowing pesticide in Bijie, in impoverished Guizhou province.   

In November 2012, five boys died from carbon monoxide poisoning after starting a charcoal fire trying to stay warm inside a dumpster. 

The problem of left-behind children is most severe in Anhui, Henan and Sichuan provinces, the key sources of migrant workers, where 44 per cent of rural children live without their mother or father. This is far higher than the national average of 35.6 per cent, the survey found. 

The loss of solid family structure at a young age can lead to severe mental health issues, according to a report by the civil society group Shang Xue Lu Shang and Beijing Normal University. 

“Companionship is an important element that contributes to a healthy psychological condition in a child, to which a family’s income or social class is not necessarily relevant,” the report said.

More in the South China Morning Post.

Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more stories by Zhang Lijia? Do check out this list.

A visibly angry Zhang Lijia commented on the forceful eviction of migrant workers in Beijing at CNN in December 2017.
 

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Facebook needs China, but China does not need Facebook - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Facebook's bumpy relationship with China got another hit as the companies lead manager, Wang-Li Moser, in charge of government relations, decided last week to return to the US for "personal reasons". Business analyst Ben Cavender explains why China does not really need Facebook, in the Wall Street Journal.

The Wall Street Journal:

Ms. Moser couldn't be reached for comment. Her exit was first reported by the New York Times. 

Analysts say the loss of Ms. Moser only adds to Facebook's challenges in re-entering China, where it has been blocked since 2009, reflecting the government's concern over the ability of large social networks to stir unrest. 

Even if it could regain entry -- and most analysts say that is unlikely -- Facebook also faces a challenge in taking on WeChat, the dominant social media app, run by Tencent Holdings Ltd. 

"Looking at the environment now, it will be very difficult for foreign firms in the social media space to make headway into China," said Ben Cavender, principal at China Market Research Group. "The government has firm censorship rules and they have strong local players -- there's no need for them to open the door so wide anymore."

More in the Wall Street Journal.

Ben Cavender is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on managing your China risks? Do check out this list.  

Censorship does not impede China's innovation - Kaiser Kuo

Kaiser Kuo

Western observers wrongly assume that China's rigid censorship is stopping the country from being innovative. As China is becoming a leader in global innovation, that misunderstanding should be dealt with, says China veteran and former Baidu communication director Kaiser Kuo to Time about Baidu's CEO Robin Li.

Time:

But in fact, business thrives inside the firewall’s confines–on its guardians’ terms, of course–and the restrictions have not appeared to stymie progress. “It turns out you don’t need to know the truth of what happened in Tiananmen Square to develop a great smartphone app,” says Kaiser Kuo, formerly Baidu’s head of international communications and a co-host of Sinica, an authoritative podcast on China. “There is a deep hubris in the West about this.” The central government in Beijing has a fearsome capacity to get things done and is willing to back its policy priorities with hard cash. The benefits for companies willing or able to go along with its whims are clear. The question for Baidu–and for Li–is how far it is willing to go.

More in Time.

Kaiser Kuo is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on innovation at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

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China "New Belt' program ready for renovation - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

When China's president Xi Jinping baptized his edition of the former silk road, he called it "One Belt, One Road". That idea and its name went against the idea of the old silk road, which was an organic set of trade routes, says Harry Broadman, former PwC Emerging Markets Investment Leader, in the Gulf News. The centralized approach by Beijing does not appeal to all stakeholders, he says.

Harry Broadman:

Only after criticism was voiced by a number of countries that Beijing was looking to sign up that the OBOR labelling conveyed China’s aim for regional domination did Xi ordered the “One” to be dropped. However, by the time the change was implemented damage has been done. In May 2017, Xi held a Belt-Road gala, but less than half of the 65 partnering countries were represented by heads of state. At the close of the summit, Xi issued a “joint” communique, but it was signed by only 30 countries. Not an overwhelming endorsement. 

And in the beginning of December 2017, Pakistan, Nepal and Myanmar announced they cancelled or sidelined three major Chinese hydroelectricity Belt-Road projects worth nearly $20 billion due to unfavourable financing terms or irregularities in the sponsoring firms’ irregularities. 

As China continues to roll out its Belt-Road program it would do well to work in full collaboration from the ground up with proposed partner countries.

More in the Gulf News. Harry Broadman is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the "One Belt, One Road" initiative at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.