Can Hainan become China's Silicon Valley? - Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers

US investor Jim Rogers visited on January 8th the Hainan Global Fintech Innovation Summit and explored the possibilities of the island to become China's Silicon Valley at Contact Hainan. "You have fabulous weather, you have a fabulous lifestyle in Hainan if you continue to open up, and make it easy for people to come here, Hainan probably will become the greatest place in China."

Contact Hainan:

"I’m always considering investing everywhere, especially in China, if I can find a good management in Hainan, smart people and they have a good idea, it doesn’t matter whether it’s agriculture, or soap, or technology, it depends on the people with a good idea", he said. 

Jim Rogers is also very interested in the construction of Hainan Free Trade Zone, he said: "Hainan has smart people, zone, it has everything you need, so does Shanghai, so does Shenzhen, if you can get all the smart people here, then you’ll be the Silicon Valley." 

Rogers also shared his suggestions for Hainan in terms of opening up and attracting talents. "You have fabulous weather, you have a fabulous lifestyle in Hainan if you continue to open up, and make it easy for people to come here, Hainan probably will become the greatest place in China. The people I met in Hainan are very smart, so I have great expectations," he said.

More at Contact Hainan.

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Trade deal likely, but no peace between US and China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

There are strong political incentives to reach a trade deal between the US and China, but that does certainly not mean that hostilities between both countries are over, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in an overview of his expectations for 2019.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the ongoing trade war between China and the US? Do check out this list. China In 2019 — Arthur Kroeber from Gavekal Research on Vimeo.

What happens to the trade war after March 1 - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

On March 1 the 90-day truce in the trade war between the US and China expires. Leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, expects a deal is possible, but that certainly does not mean the end of all hostilities, he tells Barron's.

Barron's:

Many investors are still skeptical whether U.S.-China trade negotiations could see any real breakthrough by the March 1 deadline. But Arthur Kroeber from Gavekal Research believes the odds are tilting slightly toward a deal, as an embattled President Donald Trump seeks a political win at home and China is eager to take some pressure off its slowing economy. 

China has taken a number of steps to address U.S. concerns since the December truce, including buying U.S. soybeans, lowering tariffs on U.S. autos, playing down the Made in China 2025 program, and establishing new penalties and laws to restrict the forced transfer of technology. 

But a deal doesn’t have to solve every trade issue. 

“U.S. hard-liners can still use export controls to pressure China,” explains Kroeber. “This would shift the trade war from a macro risk to a tech-specific risk.” But some kind of deal before the deadline can prevent further tariffs and lift stocks of multinational companies in both countries that depend on trade. 

China’s economy has been showing weakness since last year, but recently enacted stimulus measures should start showing results later this year. With policy support and positive trade developments, China should still be able to grow its gross domestic product by more than 6% in 2019, estimates Kroeber. That would certainly help calm fears that a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy will lead to a global recession.

More in Barron's.

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US politicians find common ground: restrict foreign investments - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

The American political landscape might be more divided than ever before, political analyst Harry Broadman sees one field where Republicans and Democrats find common ground: restricting foreign investments, especially but not only those from China through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS), he writes in Gulf News.

Harry Broadman:

Historically, the US has had one of the most open policies toward foreign direct investment (FDI) — the ownership or control by a foreign entity of 10 per cent or more of a domestic enterprise. Indeed, FDI has played an increasingly important role in propelling US economic growth.

In absolute terms, the US is the world’s largest recipient of flows of FDI, and it has been so ever since 2006 (except for the brief 2010-14 period, when comparable inflows to China were slightly larger). 

The shared concern of both the Trump White House and the Democratic House, however, is that an increasing number of these foreign investors are from nations where there is significant involvement in business decisions by governments whose agendas are perceived — indeed known — to go way beyond commercial objectives. 

China, while hardly alone in not having effective separation between government and business, including in its FDI pursuits in the US, epitomises the case.

The understandable response by the US — as well as by other advanced countries, for example, Germany — is to intensify its scrutiny of the national security risks such inbound transactions might pose domestically, particularly in sectors considered sensitive. The US inter-agency body with the authority to make these national security assessments, The Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) — pronounced “syfius” — was established in 1975 by Executive Order by President Gerald Ford.

More in Gulf News.

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China can still step back from repressing religion - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

China's central government has been cracking down on both Protestantism and the Islam over the past year. The direct future looks grim, says journalist Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao at Foreign Affairs in an addition to a piece he wrote two years ago. The government can still go back to its previously pragmatic take, but Johnson is not sure it will.

Ian Johnson

The government’s attitude toward Islam has been even more problematic. Ten of China’s 55 non-Chinese minority groups, primarily the Hui and Uighurs in the country’s northwest and far west, are Muslim. Here, the issue isn’t just control but the forced assimilation of these peoples. 

Officially, the state is pursuing a war on terrorism in its far western province of Xinjiang.  

Although the problem of violence there is real, all independent observers agree that the main cause of unrest is the heavy hand of the state, which for decades has pursued a policy of resource extraction and resettlement in order to increase the population of ethnic Chinese. 

The resulting downward spiral of repression and violence has culminated in a recent campaign of repression aimed at the very practice of Islam. State authorities have forced Xinjiang stores to sell alcohol and tobacco, for example, and forbidden students from fasting during Ramadan. The repression seems to be spreading beyond Xinjiang to Hui communities in other parts of China, where authorities are tearing down Islamic domes, removing Arabic-language signs, and silencing the outdoor call to prayer. 

Most shocking has been the return of something that indeed has echoes from the Mao era: reeducation camps. At first, the notion of such camps seemed like an unbelievable rumor, but the state has confirmed their existence, justifying them as needed to control extremism. In them, Muslims are essentially secularized by force, forbidden from anything seen as too religious. 

Until now, if one thought of large Asian countries where the mixing of religion and politics has caused strife and violence, India, Indonesia, or Pakistan might come to mind. In the future, this list could include China.

This need not happen. If the state steps back and takes a deep breath, it could avoid the conflicts that its current policies seem bound to create. One has only to think of the years of protest caused by the crackdown on Falun Gong to get an idea of how banning even one sect can become a messy, protracted affair. House churches have also been equally stubborn—just banning the Shouwang Church in Beijing in 2009 resulted in years of protests. And the inevitable backlash against such misguided policies as forcing Muslims to eat pork and drink alcohol is scarcely imaginable. 

Up until now, I’ve always believed in the pragmatism of China’s reform-era leadership, despite the brutality of many measures taken during that period. Yet China is no longer in the reform era. Instead, it is entering a new period, one that may make observers look back fondly on the relatively light touch of the country’s past leaders.

More at Foreign Affairs.

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China tech firms withdraw from CES Las Vegas - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

The US-China trade war has another casualty: the CES consumer electronics trade show in Las Vegas, says business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order to the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

It still marks a significant reversal for an event which has jokingly been referred to as the Chinese Electronics Show in recent years as big names such as Huawei Technologies and fleets of component suppliers from the Pearl River Delta region have flocked to the casino town to show off their latest wares. 

“Chinese companies are concerned about tariffs from the trade war,” said Shaun Rein, managing director of Shanghai-based China Market Research Group. “Attending a show like CES is expensive, and with [US President] Trump’s rhetoric towards Chinese technology, companies in China are rethinking their strategy of investing in the US.”... 

“Trump’s trade war makes it impossible for Chinese companies to be treated fairly and invest properly, especially in the tech sector so [many] do not want to go,” said CMRG’s Rein. “And because of the Meng situation, [many] Chinese are also afraid of travelling to the US in case they get arrested.”

More at the South China Morning Post.

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How Apple suffers from China's downturn - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Apple was already losing ground to domestic mobile phone makers, but the economic downturn and patriotism towards Huawei will make the US giant even more vulnerable, says business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order to the BBC.

BBC:

In the view of Shanghai-based Shaun Rein, Tim Cook is right to blame China. The founder of the China Market Research Group tells us he is very worried about the state of the Chinese economy: "It's the absolute worst I've seen in the 20 years I've been in China. Everything has really stalled in the last quarter." 

And he says that fall in consumer confidence, coupled with the growing trade war with the United States, has made people more nationalistic about the phones they buy. 

"There's a lot of pride in buying Chinese products made by Chinese for Chinese. After the United States got Canada to arrest the CFO of Huawei that caused a lot of Chinese to be angry. And so a lot of Chinese consumers in a show of patriotism are saying let's not buy Apple let's buy Huawei and show support for the Chinese state." 

Even if those trade tensions ease, it is hard to see Chinese phone buyers turning back to Apple in large numbers now the spell has been broken.

More at the BBC. Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Gift giving in China - Ashley Dudarenok

Ashley Dudarenok

Chinese New Year is just a month ahead of us, so gift giving is high on the agenda. China veteran Ashley Dudarenok, author of Digital China: Working with Bloggers, Influencers and KOLs, gives some advice on what to give - and what not to - at her daily webblog for both China and what a China expert should bring to Russia.

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China leads innovation in global retail - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

China is leading the innovation for retail and two to three years ahead of the US, says business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China’s Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order, to CSB News. Internet giants like Alibaba started on mobile and then turned to brick-and-mortar, unlike the traditional retail who try to force online upon their customers.

More at CSB News. Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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2019: not just your average trade war - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

US president Donald Trump might think he is just fighting a trade war, but for China's president Xi Jinping this is going much further, says political analyst Shaun Rein to CBS news. It can be the beginning of a new Cold War or worse, he says.

CBS News:

"2019 is the year we are going to find out whether or not this is just a trade war, the beginning of a cold war, or worse," said Shaun Rein, who runs the China Market Research Group in Shanghai. 

He says the Chinese government may not view this as a simple trade war but rather the United States trying to contain China's rise. 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party's takeover, and President Xi Jinping will want to project strength. 

Rein said, "I'm very concerned about Trump underestimating the resolve of President Xi to demonstrate to the world that China is now a rival superpower to the United States."

More predictions at CBS News. Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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Religion: a double-edged sword for the government - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

The Chinese government has raided a few popular underground churches, illustrating how it sees religion as a double-edged sword, says journalist Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao, at NPR.

NPR:

IAN JOHNSON: I think the government sees religion as a double-edged sword. 

SCHMITZ: Ian Johnson is the author of "The Souls Of China: The Return Of Religion After Mao." 

JOHNSON: On the one hand, it is promoting some religions, like Buddhism and Taoism and folk religions. But in terms of these other religions that they think have too many foreign ties and can be influenced by outsiders taking a very hard-line approach, it's all part and parcel of a broader effort to control civil society. 

SCHMITZ: Johnson says Chinese authorities are cracking down on churches that are not officially sanctioned by the government. Nearly half of China's 60 million Christians attend these unregistered churches. The raid on Early Rain was preceded by a raid in September by Beijing police on that city's Zion church, which had 1,500 members. In his book, Johnson profiled Early Rain's pastor, Wang Yi.... 

SCHMITZ: At a sermon in September, Wang called Chinese leader Xi Jinping a sinner, while congregants answer with amen. It was this, Wang's increasing political activism, that Johnson says likely contributed to his arrest. 

JOHNSON: He's denounced Xi Jinping lifting the term limits on the presidency so that he could become president for life. He said that this was destroying the constitution and similar to creating a new Caesar.

More at NPR.

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WeChat starts to tell stories, at last - Matthew Brennan

Matthew Brennan

China's most popular short-messages platform WeChat has at last included Snapchat/Instagram style stories. Long overdue, says Tencent and WeChat specialist Matthew Brennan at his website. He tells how it works, and why - if very late - this is a smart move.

Matthew Brennan:

WeChat is coming pretty late to the stories game. For much of 2017-18, we’ve seen them totally focused on building up the mini-programs platform, which might explain some of the lateness. Also worth noting that adding stories into the complex WeChat experience in a meaningful and impactful way without disruption of the existing ecosystem balance is tricky and not without risk. 

But the real reason why we haven’t seen WeChat embrace moments to date is likely to be founder Alan Zhang’s insistence on positioning WeChat as a tool for productively and efficiency rather than one that tries to keep users coming back to waste time. 

Yet it’s likely that the pressure from Tencent head office to leverage WeChat to fight against Bytedance and their flagship short video platform Douyin (TikTok) is proving too much. With WeChat 7.0 we’ve finally seen WeChat make an indirect but bold move into short video. 

Overall I’m pretty positive on how they’ve adapted the stories format to WeChat with this new update. I expect this feature to have a significant impact on WeChat usage habits, increasing stickiness and time spent in the app and negatively impacting consumption of other forms of short video in the China market. There will probably be some degree of cannibalization to traffic on the moments newsfeed also. 

Stories have proven to be an immersive and engaging format across many different apps. The ephemeral nature of the format (24 hrs and they disappear) naturally drives users to return. The original innovation came from SnapChat who Tencent previously looked at acquiring and now own 17% of parent company Snap. 

The most important entry point for traffic into this new feature might be groups and 1on1 conversations, not the newsfeed (Interestingly Facebook also introduced stories into Facebook groups this month). Messaging is traditionally an inhospitable environment for monetization. From a platform owner’s perspective, it’s not simple to monetize chat conversations, you can’t put adverts in there without seriously disrupting the user experience. 

Tencent have done well with cracking this tough nut, firstly using lucky money in chat conversations as a way to kick-start WeChat Pay and secondly with sharing of mini-programs in groups as a way to foster e-commerce (e.g. Pinduoduo). Stories could be a third way to leverage the huge traffic of chat conversations as they can be monetized with ads and full-screen auto-play video ads at that; no wonder Facebook is trying to stuff stories everywhere they can. 

Tencent is conservative with ad inventory, so I expect it will be quite some time before we see ads in WeChat Stories (if ever), but certainly the potential is there for them to turn on the taps if need be. In the short to mid-term, the primary benefit will be increased stickiness and engagement mostly at the expense of competitors. 

Tencent must know that chat conversations are the real key to both WeChat traffic and monetization. They might be reluctant to place more pressure on the newsfeed where traffic has been falling or official accounts that have also seen declines in page views. Chat conversations have incredibly high value to users and unlike in newsfeeds, Tencent’s position is highly resilient to competition.

More at the ChinaChannel.

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Forbidden City brand management 'chaotic' - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Beijing's Forbidden City tried to follow international cultural centers by developing itself as a brand. But business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China's Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order, wonders if the effort has been very successful, he says in the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

The Palace Museum’s brand management was chaotic and would benefit from marketing and brand professionals, said Shaun Rein, the managing director of China Market Research Group. 

“When you think of The Metropolitan Museum of Art [in New York], you know that the quality will be pretty good and authentic. But when it comes to the Forbidden City, we really don’t know what the position is,” he added.

More in the South China Morning Post.

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JD: trying to reframe their story - Ben Cavender

Ben Cavender

Alibaba's major competitor JD is trying to change its corporate structure, after its CEO and owner Liu Qiangdong has been accused - and acquitted - of sexual misconduct. Business analyst Ben Cavender sees an effort to reframe the JD story, he tells in Benzinga.

Benzinga:

JD's change comes at a time when investors are concerned with the company's corporate structure in which CEO Liu Qiangdong controls nearly 80 percent of all voting rights, WSJ said. The company's board cannot meet without his presence unless he recuses himself, and this became a more notable issue after the executive was briefly arrested in Minneapolis on suspicion of rape. 

The Chinese company's move to change its structure could be seen as an attempt to "change the narrative" surrounding the company, China Market Research Group's Ben Cavender told WSJ. From a public relations point of view, the restructuring move following Minneapolis authorities declining to press any charges against Qiangdong is encouraging, he said. 

Some uncertainty remains over what the revamped JD structure will look like, and it "doesn't change the fact that [Qiangdong] has the voting rights and power at the end of the day," Cavender said. Other analysts told WSJ they are skeptical the CEO will diminish his influence on JD behind the scenes.

More in Benzinga.

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Religious crackdown: part of controlling civil society by the state - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

The crackdown on two of five churches has not so much to do with religion, but is part of the government to control civil society, says journalist Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao, including NGO's and others outside government control, at CNN.

CNN:

Analysts and civil rights advocates say Beijing is intensifying its campaign against worshipers seen as an ideological threat to the party's monopoly on power. 

"We are now entering a new era of repression toward two of China's five religions, which is different than what we've seen over the past 40 years," said Ian Johnson, a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist and author of "The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao."... Experts say restrictions on worship help those in power mold religious institutions to their liking, or co-opt them altogether. 

Christianity and Islam, Johnson said, are seen as particularly threatening because the party views them as having "strong foreign ties." "(That's) even though both religions have long roots in China and are very much localized," he added... 

While other communist regimes have also been hostile to religion, Johnson said the crackdown on Christianity and Islam was less about the faiths' practices and beliefs and more about the China's ability to control them. 

"Under President Xi, the government has further tightened control over Christianity in its broad efforts to 'Sinicize' religion or 'adopt Chinese characteristics' -- in other words, to ensure that religious groups support the government and the Communist Party," Human Rights Watch said in a statement calling for the release of Wang Yi, the Chengdu pastor, and his fellow believers... 

It remains unclear how the Vatican deal will affect Protestant churches like Early Rain, but critics believe it comes from the same playbook as the arrests in Chengdu -- it's all about control. 

"This goes back to a broader effort by the government to crack down on anything that can be construed as civil society -- in other words, groups like religious organizations, or NGOs, that are outside government control," Johnson said.

More at CNN.

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How Google lost China - Kaiser Kuo

Kaiser Kuo

Google's effort to enter China's censored search market has failed a second time, first in China itself, now because of opposition in the US and Google staff. Former communication director Kaiser Kuo at China's leading search engine Baidu looks back at how the internet company failed at its first move back in 2006, for the MIT Technology Review.

The MIT Technology Review:

Central to that decision by Google leadership was a bet that by serving the market—even with a censored product—they could broaden the horizons of Chinese users and nudge the Chinese internet toward greater openness. 

At first, (in 2006) Google appeared to be succeeding in that mission. When Chinese users searched for censored content on google.cn, they saw a notice that some results had been removed. That public acknowledgment of internet censorship was a first among Chinese search engines, and it wasn’t popular with regulators. 

“The Chinese government hated it,” says Kaiser Kuo, former head of international communications for Baidu. “They compared it to coming to my house for dinner and saying, ‘I will agree to eat the food, but I don’t like it.’” Google hadn’t asked the government for permission before implementing the notice but wasn’t ordered to remove it. The company’s global prestige and technical expertise gave it leverage. China might be a promising market, but it was still dependent on Silicon Valley for talent, funding, and knowledge. 

Google wanted to be in China, the thinking went, but China needed Google... 

The Google announcement shoved cyberattacks and censorship into the spotlight. The world’s top internet company and the government of the most populous country were now engaged in a public showdown. 

“[Chinese officials] were really on their back foot, and it looked like they might cave and make some kind of accommodation,” says Kuo. “All of these people who apparently did not give much of a damn about internet censorship before were really angry about it. The whole internet was abuzz with this.” 

But officials refused to cede ground. “China welcomes international Internet businesses developing services in China according to the law,” a foreign ministry spokeswoman told Reuters at the time. Government control of information was—and remains—central to Chinese Communist Party doctrine. Six months earlier, following riots in Xinjiang, the government had blocked Facebook, Twitter, and Google’s YouTube in one fell swoop, fortifying the “Great Firewall.” The government was making a bet: China and its technology sector did not need Google search to succeed.

More at the MIT Technology Review.

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How Protestants and Roman-Catholics get a different treatment - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

Islam has been high on the hitlist of the central government, but Christian faiths seem to get a different treatment. journalist Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao, dives for the Independent into the differences between Protestants and Roman Catholics.

Ian Johnson:

The government seems to be handling Christianity in two different ways. It has pursued diplomacy towards Roman Catholics, forging a deal with the Vatican that would have Rome recognise government-appointed bishops in exchange for the Vatican gaining some say in how they are appointed. 

This, in theory, would bind all Catholics to the government-run church and make underground churches unnecessary. 

Protestantism, which lacks a centralized structure, has had several important churches closed or destroyed, apparently as a warning. 

These include a large unregistered church in Beijing, the Zion church, which was closed in September, and whose leader was placed under house arrest. 

The crackdown in Chengdu appears to be of another magnitude, partially because Mr Wang is so outspoken and nationally famous. 

Before converting to Christianity in 2005, he was named one of the 50 most prominent public intellectuals in China. 

In 2008, Mr Wang founded Early Rain, and his sermons were often extremely topical, touching on what he saw as rampant materialism in Chinese society and the political compromises made by the government-run church. 

He also opposed the common use of abortion in China, a practice pushed by the government as it sought to control the country’s population. And he staunchly opposed female pastors, expelling one couple from his church because the wife had studied theology and wanted to preach. 

His statements on these topics landed Mr Wang in and out of custody, and he was forbidden from travelling abroad on several occasions. 

But he also advocated radical transparency, making his sermons available online and giving police names of people who attended Early Rain — an effort, he said, to avoid acting as if the church had something to hide. 

After the new religious regulations were promulgated last year, however, Mr Wang’s criticism of the government became increasingly strident. 

Earlier this year, when China’s Parliament put President Xi Jinping’s name in the Constitution and lifted term limits on his office, allowing him to serve beyond his current term, Mr Wang was scathing. 

“Abolishing the term limit on the leader of state does not make a leader but a usurper,” he wrote. “Writing a living person’s name into the Constitution is not amending the Constitution but destroying it.” 

Most recently, he waded into even more sensitive issues, such as the unrest in minority parts of the country. 

In one sermon, he said that the government was waging war on “the soul of man” in Xinjiang, Tibet and Chinese parts of the country, but that it would fail because people would ask themselves: “In the middle of their pitiful and wretched lives, ruled by despotism, and money and power, where is your honour? Where is your dignity? Where is your freedom?” 

Seemingly sensing that he could be detained at any time, Mr Wang months ago wrote a declaration to be published 48 hours after his detention. 

In it, he said he was “filled with anger and disgust at the persecution of the church by the Communist regime.” 

It was not his role to overthrow the government, he said, though he predicted one day its rule would end.

More at the Independent.

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Xi Jinping ends the Deng Xiaoping reform era - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

China's former leader Deng Xiaoping has been celebrated as the architect of the country's economic reform. But current president Xi Jinping is no longer following Deng's track, but defines his own state-dominated economy, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, to Bloomberg.

Bloomberg:

When President Xi Jinping assumed power in 2013, many hoped he’d turn out to be a leader in Deng’s reformist vein. But while Deng wanted his market-based reforms to make China rich, Xi has reasserted the control of the state in an effort to turn the country into a political and technological superpower. 

“One of Xi’s overarching goals in terms of economic management is to effectively, if not formally, declare the end of the era of reform a la Deng Xiaoping,” said Arthur Kroeber, a founding partner and managing director at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. Whereas Deng and subsequent leaders bolstered the role of private businesses in the economy and reduced that of the state, Xi seems to think the balance is now about right, Kroeber said.

More in Bloomberg.

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What to expect in China's fintech industry? - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

Financial authorities have been cracking down on protest caused by financial scandals, especially in P2P lending. Financial analyst  Sara Hsu looks at her weblog at the expectations for China's fintech industry in the near future during a slowing economy.

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China's religious revolution is not over - Ian Johnson

Ian Johnson

Journalist Ian Johnson, author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao, did spend much time with pastor Wang Yi and his Early Rain Covenant Church during his research of his book. Now the government is cracking down, it means a drastic change of attitude by the authorities, but Johnson does not expect the religious revolution in China is over, he writes on his website.

Ian Johnson:

One of the main characters in The Souls of China is Wang Yi, a dynamic pastor in the southwestern city of Chengdu.

In the book, I followed him and his congregation, Early Rain Covenant Church, for more than a year in 2012 to 2013, and was amazed at how he managed to walk a fine line, almost being arrested but managing to stay out of jail and continue to lead what became a huge church of more than 500 people--all outside government control. This included a seminary, grade school, and eventually a second church. 

Wang Yi wasn't perfect. He was arch-conservative, once expelling a couple from the church because the wife had studied theology and wanted to preach. I also found him infuriatingly judgmental about other faiths and at times dictatorial. It often felt that he had some of the excessive fervor of the newly converted. 

But he was also one of the most gifted and intelligent pastors I had ever come across. Maybe because of his background as a human rights lawyer, or just because he was filled with the Holy Spirit, Wang Yi gave riveting sermons about a huge variety of topics, from problems in society to Biblical history. I felt I learned more from him than probably from any other pastor, and it made me wish I lived in Chengdu--he made you want to go to church, and I could see why his church was such a success. 

For my book, he and Early Rain were ideal to profile. The church represented an important trend--the rise of big, urban churches that attracted increasingly well-educated white-collar Chinese people. And while Wang Yi's overt political orientation wasn't typical of most pastors, it was still a key part of the story of faith's rise in China. It's no coincidence, for example, that about a quarter of the human rights (weiquan) lawyers in China were Christian... 

If in the past the government had a relatively laissez-faire attitude toward all religions--viewing them all skeptically but largely tolerating them--now we are in an era where some religions will be in ever-deeper conflict with the state and others will be courted by it. Unfortunately for Wang Yi, his faith--Christianity--is on the wrong side of this divide.

More at his weblog.

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