Li Qiang: the new man on the block – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

The nomination of Li Qiang as the number two of China’s Communist Party was one of few surprises at the 20th CCP conference last week, says political analyst Victor Shih at CNN. Li Qiang, Shanghai’s party chief, was responsible for the city’s much-discussed two-month corona lock-down.

CNN:

While the lineup revealed Sunday is the top tier of the Communist Party, those selected will then go on to fill top government positions, as appointments are made in the coming months ahead of a key meeting of the country’s rubber-stamp legislature in March.

The new lineup means Xi will also gain greater control over all aspects of the Chinese state, including the economy, which is traditionally the domain of the premier, who heads its State Council.

That position is now expected to be placed in the hands of Shanghai party chief Li Qiang, a long time Xi loyalist who has been appointed to the number-two role in the party, despite the backlash that followed a chaotic two-month Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year.

CNN:

Li’s appointment is one of several “norm-busting” elements of this year’s leadership reshuffle, according to Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California San Diego, who noted that Li’s appointment will place a leader without any State Council experience at the head of that body — something not seen in decades.

“The Chinese economy and the State Council itself are so much more complex today compared to the 1980s. Not having that experience is going to at least initially make the job of running China’s state machinery that much more challenging,” said Shih, the author of “Coalitions of the Weak,” a book about elite politics in China over recent decades.

Meanwhile, the concentration of power “introduces a certain unhealthy dynamic in policymaking in that the people who are close to him are those who, over the years, have honed the skills of always agreeing and supporting Xi Jinping’s opinion,” he said.

Other new members include Cai, 66, party boss of Beijing and one of Xi’s most-trusted confidants; Li Xi, 66, current party chief of China’s southern economic engine Guangdong province and trusted Xi ally, who is expected to oversee the anti-corruption organization; and Ding, 60, Xi’s chief of staff and close aide.

More at CNN

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Xi Jinping: most powerfull, and on the firing line – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

Political analyst Ian Johnson looks at the results of the now-closed meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. Technically Xi Jinping might be called China’s most powerful man, but that makes him also more vulnerable, and puts him on the firing line, writes Johnson on the Council of Foreign Relations.

Ian Johnson:

All of this raises questions about the nature and durability of Xi’s power. In journalese, Xi is the “most powerful leader since Mao.” But this has yet to be proven. Mao founded the People’s Republic, destroyed the old society of landowners and capitalists, and radically transformed Chinese society.

Mao’s eventual successor was Deng Xiaoping, who gained power in the late 1970s and held it for nearly twenty years, ruling through proxies who he discarded at will. Deng dramatically changed China’s trajectory. He gutted many of Mao’s policies and set in motion economic reforms that turned China into the economic juggernaut that it is today. His brutal 1989 crackdown on student-led demonstrators in Tiananmen Square also set the boundaries for debate in China since then, taking off the table any sort of political reform. And he began a military modernization that is bearing fruit today in the form of aircraft carriers and other advanced hardware.

By contrast, Xi has not—yet, at least—radically changed China, despite his claims to greatness. He has yet to create the conditions necessary for China to become a high-income country. His foreign policy has created a serious backlash abroad. And his domestic agenda is mired in one unimaginative crackdown after the other.

Deng put in place a rickety system of succession, but one that he regularly flouted and that only survived his two hand-picked successors, Jiang and Hu. It is this system that Xi flouted by taking a third term as general secretary on Saturday. But this is hardly the destruction of an ancient system of checks and balances. Instead, it is more like brushing away a few fig leaves to reveal what everyone knew was always there: strongman rule.

Xi’s biggest risk—and his greatest weakness as a strategist—is that he has put himself on the firing line. When things went badly for Mao or Deng, they could jettison underlings who were nominally in charge of various issues. Xi, however, has constructed a system that makes him look strong in the short run but leaves him no place to hide.

More at the CFR

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Can China keep on changing under Xi? – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

One of the key reasons China could reach its current status, was because it has been reinventing itself continuously, says political analyst Ian Johnson to Aljazeera. But Johnson is not sure the country can do the same under Xi Jinping’s rule, he adds.

Aljazeera:

Ian Johnson, a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), … noted the economic and foreign policy challenges ahead for Xi, who during his tenure had nurtured the rise of a “wolf warrior” diplomacy that did not shy away from stating China’s explicit competition with the West.

Describing such policies as “clumsy”, Johnson said that China’s aggressive approach in the South China Sea had alienated its nearest neighbours while its “wolf warrior” diplomats had nudged countries that once saw China’s rise as benign and welcome to recalibrate their perceptions of Beijing…

One of the reasons the party has been able to remain in power for so long is its ability to change course radically, said Johnson, offering Deng introducing market liberalisation and foreign trade after the chaos of the Mao years as an example.

But Johnson does not see that flexibility in the party under Xi.

China’s inability to progress from its initially highly-successful zero-Covid strategy is a case in point. The party, he said, appears content to lock down cities despite the huge disruptions to people’s lives and the economy, and regardless of what the best science says about dealing with the pandemic.

“Ploughing on” with zero-Covid could indicate an “information deficit“, Johnson said. “Where nobody really dares to tell Xi Jinping things because he’s so powerful.”

Researching the CCP’s use of history to legitimise its rule, Johnson told how Xi has sought to link the Mao era with his own period of leadership.

“So basically there are two giants in the history of the People’s Republic of China. There is Mao and there is Xi. This is the way Xi is presenting it now,” Johnson said.

The danger with any project of self-constructed greatness is that there is little place for critical reflection. Johnson describes a potential to “lose touch with reality”.

More in Aljazeera.

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Xi Jinping: brought in for stability, but took over the show – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

This week, Xi Jinping will likely start his third term as secretary general of China’s communist party. He started off a decade ago as a safe bet for stability, says political analyst Ian Johnson, but then started to take over the whole show, at Yahoo/news.

Yahoo News:

Xi was considered a safe choice for leadership, a pair of safe hands to steady a ship that continued to suffer the turbulent stresses of modernization. “He was brought in to do a job,” said Ian Johnson of the Council on Foreign Relations, referring to Xi’s anticorruption drives that epitomized his first years as China’s top official.

Instead, Xi has indelibly changed the party and the country, including escalating tensions with democratic countries and building a Mao-like cult of personality that had been carefully discouraged among his predecessors. As Johnson put it, “It’s like if you bring in someone to fix a problem, and before you know it they are running the whole show and have kicked you out.”

“I don’t know if they bargained for all of this. He came in and, under the guise of anti-corruption, he arrested all of his enemies, he busted the factions, and he broke the system that was put in place before him,” Johnson added.

More at Yahoo news.

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How Xi changed the China system – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

Under Xi Jinping, China’s system for picking its top leader, set up by Deng Xiaoping, has changed dramatically, writes China analyst Ian Johnson. The world has to look at a different China, that might be less stable, he tells CNN.

CNN:

This system worked for Deng’s two hand-picked successors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Jiang retired more or less on schedule in 2002 as did Hu in 2012.

If Xi had followed this system, he would retire at the party congress next week. Not only that but in fact we would have known his successor in 2017, just as we knew a decade earlier, in 2007, that Xi was going to succeed Hu.

Another part of Deng’s system of orderly succession was telegraphing halfway through one leader’s term who their successor would be. That was meant to forge consensus and prevent wild swings in policy.

But no successor was appointed in 2017, meaning we knew around then that Xi wanted a third term. Xi’s intentions became clearer in 2018 when China’s parliament lifted term limits on the presidency.

Even though ceremonial, the post had term limits enshrined in the constitution. Changing the constitution to lift those limits made clear that come 2022, Xi was going to go for a third term as supreme leader.

So in some ways what is happening this year was set in motion years earlier, but it’s still hugely significant. This will play out in ways that people around the world will experience in three important ways.

The first is in continued tension and conflict in foreign policy. Under Xi, China began projecting power beyond its borders. Under his watch, China massively built up its military presence in the South China Sea, constructed military bases in South Asia and Africa and instructed its diplomats to use very blunt, aggressive language in dealing with other countries — something known as “wolf warrior” diplomacy.

Most importantly, China took a new, harder-line approach toward Taiwan. In August, his administration released a white paper that carries a marked change in tone from previous white papers in 1993 and 2000.

Unification with Taiwan is now described as “indispensable” for Xi’s key overarching policy goal of “the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” That likely means more tensions with democratic countries over Taiwan and an increased threat of Chinese invasion.

Second is slower economic growth. Xi’s government has initiated few market-oriented reforms, leaving huge swaths of the economy still in state hands. That’s contributed to slowing economic growth during his decade in power and growing youth unemployment.

Over the past few decades, one thing that the world economy could count on was strong Chinese economic growth. That may no longer be the case.

Finally, China faces political uncertainty for the first time in decades. Even though Deng’s system lasted only a generation, it did give China a period of political stability that it hadn’t enjoyed in more than a century.

More at CNN.

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Will Xi Jinping become more assertive in his third term? – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

Political analyst Ian Johnson answers some basic questions on the upcoming 5-yearly meeting of the Chinese Communist Party at the website of the Council of Foreign Affairs. Most Polit bureau members will retire, Premier Li Keqiang will prepare for his replacement in March, and secretary-general Xi Jinping will be re-elected for his third term. What will it mean for Xi’s position?

Ian Johnson:

Will a third term make Xi more assertive, particularly in terms of his foreign policy moves?

That is hard to say because he’s already been quite assertive. Domestically, he’s pursued a scorched-earth policy in areas with many minority populations, essentially forcing them to follow Han Chinese cultural practices. He’s also quashed civil society, reined in religious groups, and put limits on nongovernmental organizations. Internationally, he has allowed diplomats to pursue “wolf warrior” policies, which often means speaking extremely bluntly to officials in host countries; presided over a military buildup in the South China Sea; and pushed a more aggressive policy toward Hong Kong and Taiwan.

These policies have created backlash. Almost all wealthy, democratic countries—including the United States, European Union countries, Japan, and South Korea—now view China as a rival and not just an economic competitor. This has led countries to pursue policies to reduce reliance on China. This is a huge change from a little over a decade ago, when China was seen as a potential partner in the existing international order.

Today, China is instead seen as a disruptor—not on the level of Russia, which has invaded neighbors under President Vladimir Putin, but still as a serious challenge to democratic countries. That seismic shift largely took place on Xi’s watch and is almost certain to continue.

Will there be any big policy announcements during the twentieth party congress, such as economic reforms or a lifting of China’s zero-COVID policy?

Probably not. Congresses are about choosing the party’s leaders and setting its general direction. There will be a lengthy communiqué issued at the end of the meeting from which observers can glean ideas about what the government has planned. But it will mostly praise the government and list challenges.

More answers at the CFR-website

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How Xi Jinping dominates China’s top leadership – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

At China’s top leadership, it was always possible for different political agendas to exist next to each other. But since 2012 next to Xi Jinping – up for his unprecedented third term as CCP party secretary – very few variations in leadership style have been given room, says political analyst Victor Shih at the ABC. The retirement of premier Li Keqiang finalizes Xi’s powerful position, he adds. China’s next premier is likely to be a good friend of Xi, while women and ethnic minorities make little chance.

ABC:

As soon as he came into power within the party in 2012, Xi formed and headed a whole series of groups ranging from economic reforms, to Taiwanese affairs, to national security.

That has left Li little autonomy to set his own agenda, according to Associate Professor Victor Shih, from the University of California San Diego.

“The leading groups headed by Xi Jinping have been setting the agenda to a large extent,” Professor Shih said.

“The State Council became kind of an implementation organ instead of a policy-making organ.”…

So what kind of people are more likely to join the Politburo in October?

Professor Shih, who leads the CCP Elite Database, which tracks biographical information of thousands of elite party members, said connections with Xi Jinping would be key when it comes to eligibility for the Politburo.

This could be either through families — descendants of senior communist officials — or past working relationships with Xi.

Professor Shih said while there was still a place for officials with an ordinary background like Li to join the State Council next year, key positions would most likely be held by Xi’s connections.

He also said there would be fewer leadership positions for people coming from a social science background like Li, with more politicians from engineering backgrounds having been promoted during Xi’s reign.

The CCP Elite Database also shows that all current members of Politburo are of Han ethnicity, despite China being made up of 55 other minor ethnic groups.

And China is unlikely to have a female premier any time soon.

Less than 10 per cent of officials serving in the central government are women, according to China Elite Database.

“Even in a lot of Islamic countries, [some of which] discriminate against women, you typically will see a higher ratio. And in Western democracies, it’s like 40 to 60 per cent are women,” Professor Shih said.

Currently, the most powerful female official is Sun Chunlan, who is the second vice-premier overseeing China’s COVID strategy.

She is also the only woman in the current Politburo. There are no women in the Politburo Standing Committee.

Sun had been seen on the frontline of the pandemic in Shanghai and Wuhan, the two cities that went into lockdowns during China’s coronavirus peaks in 2020 and 2022.

“She should be the number one person in the party. But in that political system, she’s not qualified,” Professor Shih said.

More at ABC.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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New policies and people at the upcoming 20th Party Congress – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih at the China Edge

Political analyst Victor Shih, author of Coalitions of the Weak, (2022), looks at the new policies and people emerging ahead of the upcoming 20th Party Congress. While party-secretary Xi Jinping will be up for a third term, Premier Li Keqiang, typically in charge of economic affairs will be replaced, he tells at the China Edge.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Premier Li Keqiang's new leadership's style - Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih (top right)

Leading political analyst Victor Shih joins a panel at the Atlantic Council to discuss China’s top leadership, including the different style premier Li Keqiang tries to display in a situation where little deviation from the top leadership is possible. Including the leadership perspective on the Shanghai lockdown.

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Coalitions of the weak: the road from Mao to Xi – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

Political scientist Victor Shih discusses his upcoming book, Coalitions of the Weak, on the road from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, who will likely enter his third term as China’s undisputed later in 2022.

About the book:

For the first time since Mao, a Chinese leader may serve a life-time tenure. Xi Jinping may well replicate Mao’s successful strategy to maintain power. If so, what are the institutional and policy implications for China? Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao’s strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi’s rapid consolidation of power after 2012.

You can watch the whole session here.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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China has a tough time ahead in 2022 – Jim Rogers

 

Jim Rogers

Even if China does all right when all its customers have a problem, it still has a problem and has a tough 2022 ahead, says super investor Jim Rogers in an analysis of Xi Jinping’s speech at the World Economic Forum, for state broadcaster CGTN.

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Trying to make sense out of China – Kaiser Kuo

 

Kaiser Kuo

China watcher Kaiser Kuo tries to make sense out of China, in a world where polarized views on the second economy in the world often lead to exchanges of opinion and less analysis of facts, he told at the end of 2021 at the Europa Forum in Luzern, Switzerland.

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China is closing more than only its borders – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

China under President Xi Jinping is profoundly changing its attitude to the outside world, much more than a pandemic-driven closure of the borders, says political analyst Victor Shih to CNN.

CNN:

And in August, a Chinese infectious disease expert was called a “traitor” who “blindly worshiped Western ideas” for suggesting China should eventually learn to coexist with Covid. Some even accused him of colluding with foreign forces to sabotage China’s pandemic response.

While it is unclear to what extent these nationalist sentiments represent mainstream opinion, they’ve been given overriding prominence in China’s government-managed public discourse, where most liberal-leaning voices have been silenced.

Victor Shih, a China expert at the University of California, San Diego, said while Xi’s predecessors had “grudgingly tolerated” Western reporters, NGO workers and sometimes even welcomed academics to China, the current administration now views their presence as sources of undesirable influences.

And Covid measures have become a convenient way to keep them out. Since the pandemic, most academics and non-profit workers have stopped going to China due to the border restrictions and quarantine requirements, Shih said.

“This heavy filter that is applied today — and had been applied prior to the pandemic — will help filter out what (Chinese leaders) see as undesirable elements from coming into China and polluting the values of the Chinese people,” Shih said.

But even after the border reopens, it remains to be seen how the Chinese government will allow foreign visitors to return — and whether some sort of additional screening might stay in place…

“Other political parties, or even maybe Xi’s predecessors, might have seen this dramatic reduction in contact between China and the rest of the world as a big problem. But for now, the Xi administration does not seem to recognize this as a problem,” University of California’s Shih said.

“(If) China wants to persuade the world that it is a benign power … it needs to engage the world.”

More at CNN.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Xi-Biden virtual meeting: a step forward – Victor Shih

US president Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping plan a virtual meeting next week, after months of rising tension between both economic giants. Political analyst Victor Shih sees the meeting as a step forward, he tells CNN.

CNN:

US officials revealed last month that they had reached an agreement in principle with China to hold a virtual meeting between Biden and Xi before the end of the year, as part of an effort to ensure stability in one of the world’s most consequential and fraught relationships.

That tentative agreement was the result of an extended, six-hour meeting between Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan and China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi in Switzerland, just days after Beijing sent record-breaking number of warplanes into Taiwan’s defense zone.

Victor Shih, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the University of California, San Diego, said the meeting is a positive development for bilateral relations.

“I think the bilateral meeting next week is a preliminary sign that the relationship between the US and China is getting back on a more normal track — than (what) had been the case in the later Trump years,” Shih told CNN.

The meeting is also likely to motivate officials, especially on the Chinese side — from the Foreign Ministry to the Commerce ministry — to once again focus their energy on US-China relationship and think of ways to improve it, Shih added.

The last time Biden and Xi spoke was in September, in a phone call that lasted roughly 90 minutes.

More at CNN.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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