Why Oracle might be the best buyer for Bytedance's Tiktok - Matthew Brennan

Oracle has taken over Microsoft as the preferred buyer of Bytedance's Tiktok in the US after the Chinese company got into problems with US President Donald Trump. Innovation expert Matthew Brennan says Oracle might be the better match as a buyer of Tiktok, he tells in Coinspeaker.

Coinspeaker:

ByteDance will be the overall decision-maker on who to sell its product to. Preferably, one that will offer the best cash deal, which both Oracle and Microsoft are capable of anyway, or one that will not pose a direct competition threat in future for its venture, where Oracle highly wins.

“The perfect company for Bytedance to sell to is one with deep enough pockets to pay a good price,” said Matthew Brennan, a social media analyst in Beijing.

Brennan added that the buyer should be “good enough at tech to actually run all the advanced AI (artificial intelligence that TikTok has)” but weak enough at consumer mobile that they would avoid arming a future competitor. “By these measures, Oracle sounds like a good fit,” said Brennan.

Oracle is actively providing the CIA with its database software solution, and the acquisition of China’s huge tech company might be a gateway to spying the Chinese market.

In addition, Oracle’s acquisition of TikTok will be a plus for the struggling company to venture into new markets and presumably the social media industry.

More in Coinspeaker.

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Why Tiktok’s sale to Microsoft might be a good deal for Bytedance – Arnold Ma

Bytedance is negotiating the sale of popular video streaming app Tiktok with Microsoft, now it became into hot water with an executive ban by US President Donald Trump. Business analyst Arnold Ma tells CGTN why that might be a good deal for Bytedance, since it has 60 apps in China, not just a few like most tech companies, and might focus on those other apps. Even the price, 10 billion US dollars for a company valued at 120 billion, is not bad for an app that only exists for three years, he adds.

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Why China's apps (mostly) lack a global impact - Kaiser Kuo

Kaiser Kuo

Donald Trump's plan to ban Tiktok from the US is straight-up Sinophobia, says former Baidu communications director Kaiser Kuo to Slate. Most successful apps in China will not make a decent following among consumers in the rest of the world, he argues, just because they are too much adjusted to China's internet rules and customs, he adds.

Slate:

Kaiser Kuo, a Chinese American tech journalist and podcaster, and former spokesperson for the Chinese search engine Baidu, agrees that TikTok’s data collection has been aggressive but feels surveillance fears are overblown. “We have not seen any evidence so far that they’ve done anything nefarious. This is about our deeply emotional response to China. It’s straight-up Sinophobia,” he said in an interview prior to Trump’s ban threat. “If TikTok, which is just pure greasy kids’ stuff, is drawing so much fire, it’s hard to believe that anything wouldn’t.”

It’s also not clear that China really wants to develop globally successful consumer tech products. Kuo notes that TikTok’s success is something of an anomaly, since “the really successful apps in China, the very things that made them successful would hinder them from success in other markets.” Baidu, for instance, may be an excellent search engine but its compliance with Chinese censorship laws makes it difficult to export. 

The messaging service WeChat is an all-in-one swiss army knife app for its Chinese users, facilitating everything from payment to ridesharing to food ordering. Given its ubiquity, it’s also a powerful tool for surveillance and censorship, which is why the international edition is so pared down that it’s essentially a WhatsApp knock-off. 

TikTok’s domestic Chinese counterpart, Douyin, also boasts some micropayment and search features—in addition to censorship compliance—that are absent from the global version.

More in Slate.

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China companies list on US stock markets despite restrictions - Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

Chinese companies keep on flocking to US stock markets despite the upcoming anti-China regulations and the hostile political climate between China and the US. Why? Because they need capital to finance their plans yesterday, not tomorrow, explains political economist Shirley Ze Yu at her vlog.

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Is Trump sticking to the China trade deal? - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Chaos reigns the White House as US presidential advisor Peter Navarro said the China trade deal was dead and was promptly corrected by US President Donald Trump who said the opposite. Business analyst Shaun Rein says at the BBC Trump cannot control his lieutenants, as they prefer to blame China for anything that goes wrong.

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US-China relations no priority for either country - Victor Shih

Victor Shih

US president Trump might be doing his best to upset China in every possible way, but US-China relations are no longer top priority for either country, says political analyst Victor Shih at NBC News. “Fundamentally the big problem on both sides is that you now have leadership which no longer considers having good bilateral relationships as a highest priority,”

NBC News:

“Fundamentally the big problem on both sides is that you now have leadership which no longer considers having good bilateral relationships as a highest priority,” said Victor Shih, a professor of politics at the University of California, San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.

He said the lack of willingness to improve those ties has been behind more intensive U.S. investigations into alleged Chinese espionage, sanctions on the Chinese technology giant Huawei and the extensive trade tariffs. 

“Previous administrations should have pursued these issues,” he said. “But didn’t because of a strong desire to maintain cooperation.”

More at NBC News.

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US pay the price on intellectual property and tariffs - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

The US gained very little in its trade agreement with China, says trade veteran Harry Broadman on NBC News. The text on trade secret does not add any value, and the US firms and consumers pay the price for tariffs, he says.

NBC News:

“On trade secrets, to be honest, the language that’s in the agreement is pretty loose and generic,” said Harry G. Broadman, managing director at Berkeley Research Group who chairs the firm’s emerging markets practice. “On the face of it, I don’t see — at least on that portion of the agreement — a lot that’s significantly different from previous types of agreements.” 

Some of the practices and changes agreed to by Beijing were changes that were already in the works or had been previously agreed-upon...

“The people who are paying the tariffs are U.S. firms and U.S. consumers,” Broadman said. “It’s not clear to me what the actual economic impact will be as a dispute resolution measure to ‘threaten’ China with more tariffs.”

More at NBC News.

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The US should not have taken on China alone - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

By trying to take on China alone on trade, the US failed to achieve real results in its first trade deal, says trade-veteran Harry Broadman to Bloomberg. China did not adhere to the multilateral trade deal it closed by joining the WTO, but Donald Trump failed to address the issues related to that. 

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Will China execute the phase one trade agreement? – Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

President Xi Jinping decided to stay away from the signing ceremony, and that was an ominous sign, writes political analyst Shirley Ze Yu in the South China Morning Post. China will stick to the trade deal, as long as the country's economic stability is not under threat, she argues.

Shirley Ze Yu:

The sentiment within China towards the partial trade deal is cold. The contrast between how much the US is talking up the trade deal and how far China has moved beyond it is striking.

Last year, Trump wanted only a “good deal” or no deal at all. In October, he yielded to China’s two-track proposal to the trade negotiations, which draws a line between negotiations on trade and foreign affairs. China’s pragmatic approach saw the US’ principled insistence on addressing structural issues disintegrate.

“The highest art of war is to win without fighting,” says The Art of War. China won’t confront the US or increase hostilities. It will simply chart its course towards economic dominance.

Much more in the South China Morning Post.

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Part 1 trade deal: just the start of real negotiations - Sara Hsu

Sara Hsu

China and the US might be signing a first trade deal, but that is just the start of prolonged negotiations, as even most tariffs will remain on the table, says financial analyst Sara Hsu in The Heat.

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How foreign investment reform can be win-win - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

China has introduced some legal reforms for foreign businesses. Foreign trade expert Harry Broadman explains the advantages for countries in facilitating foreign investments, he tells at the Elevenmyanmar. Reforms can be potential engines of growth, he adds.

Elevenmyanmar:

Some key principles highlighted by the new law are: intellectual property rights of foreign businesses are deemed to be protected in the same way as the local firms; foreign investors can freely remit profits, capital gains and liquidation proceeds to their overseas entities, in renminbi or in foreign currency; and foreign investors should be equivalently treated as the Chinese companies (that is, they will enjoy the “national treatment”). 

“One of the key objectives of countries putting in place policies to encourage foreign investment is to lower barriers to business entry in order to stimulate domestic competition, provide local consumers with new products or services, expand employment opportunities and foster innovation－all of which are engines of growth,” said Harry Broadman, managing director and chair of the emerging markets practice at the Berkeley Research Group and a member of the Johns Hopkins Faculty. 

This new Foreign Investment Law, and its corresponding regulations that are implemented, mark one of the most significant developments in China’s treatment of foreign investment, experts said.

More at the Elevenmyanmar.

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Why "uncoupling" the US from China is not feasible - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

China and the US might be signing a first trade deal this month, economist Arthur Kroeber does not see much change. Uncoupling with economies is not possible, he argues, and the trade deal does not deal with the real problems, he tells in The New Yorker.

The New Yorker:

When Trump first imagined “uncoupling”—or “decoupling,” as it became known—the term evoked a divorce. But a complete decoupling is implausible. “Total revenue of U.S. companies and affiliates in China in 2017, for one year, is five hundred and forty-four billion dollars,” Kroeber told me. “What’s the chance these numbers can go down eighty or ninety per cent? Almost no chance. We can remove a few of those tangles, but the cost to the U.S. economy of removing them all would be unacceptably high." 

Some companies—Nintendo, GoPro, Hasbro—have accelerated plans to build factories in places such as India, Vietnam, and Mexico. But most American C.E.O.s want more access to China, not less...

The truce did not resolve the core disputes, such as technology transfer, and, outside the White House, it was mostly seen as the end of a wasteful stunt. “Trump was looking for any possible excuse not to put on the tariffs that he had threatened,” Kroeber said, “so he got a promise from the Chinese to buy soybeans and some other stuff, and he packaged this.” 

More in the New Yorker.

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Irregularities hinder trade deal - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

Analysts watched the 'announcement' of a first trade deal between China and the US with amazement. Former US trade negotiator Harry Broadman points out that typically you wait till you have something in writing, in both languages, to avoid hiccups before the signing, he explains to Reuters. 

Reuters:

It could be weeks before the 86-page agreement is translated into Chinese and further details are released. Several Chinese officials this week said the wording of the deal remained a delicate issue and care was needed to ensure expressions used in text did not re-escalate tensions, raising concerns it could still unravel. 

Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China who is now a senior director at McLarty Associates, said both the dust-up with the Mexicans over U.S. plans to monitor changes to Mexican labor rules, and the delayed release of the text of the China deal raised questions about how Lighthizer operated. 

"Both Mexico and China seem to have been caught off guard," Guajardo said. "It's troubling. It does indicate a bit of a pattern on the U.S. side of presenting different agreements than their parties think they agreed to." 

Harry Broadman, a former senior USTR official, said there was no reason the Mexico issue should have spilled into public view. Announcing the trade deal with China before the text was translated was also unusual, he said. 

"That is not the procedure usually followed in trade negotiations worldwide. Usually you speak after you have something in writing, and both sides release it," Broadman said.

More in Reuters.


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Trade war, phase 2 - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

After a first symbolic truce, the world should brace for the next phase in the trade war between China and the US, warns leading economist Arthur Kroeber, according to Barron's. China has stalled its economic reforms and mechanisms to contain the US power fail, and the technology war is likely to resume, he stresses.

Barron's:

What may be a tactical positive for markets and the global economy is viewed as a strategic negative by those who look at the deal through a longer-term policy lens. “The agreement falls far short of achieving the U.S. goal of forcing China to change its state-led economic system,” writes Arthur Kroeber, founding partner of China research firm Gavekal Dragonomics,in a note to clients. “Instead, it cements a pattern of managed trade reminiscent of Japan’s ‘voluntary’ export restraints in the late 1980s. And it will do nothing to stop further escalation of the two countries’ technology war.”... 

The U.S.-China technology war is also likely to escalate, playing out over emerging technologies like 5G. Kroeber says the U.S. is upping pressure on European allies to rethink using gear from China’s Huawei Technologies in their 5G networks. Norway’s telecom utility decided to use Huawei rivals, and German legislators are pushing back against chancellor Angela Merkel’s efforts to keep buying Huawei gear. More Chinese companies could also end up on the U.S. export-control or sanctions blacklists—all of which will push China to further re-energize its investments to reduce its dependence on U.S. suppliers, he adds. 

And don’t count out another tariff war emerging after the election. With the Trump administration’s efforts to debilitate the World Trade Organization’s dispute resolution mechanism, Kroeber says there is no effective check on the U.S. ability to engage in unilateral trade actions like tariffs, especially after the election. Kroeber is also skeptical about China’s purchase commitments, adding that it is hard to see how these targets can be met in the real world. That suggests tariff wars could resume in 2021 if the targets aren’t met.

More in Barron's.

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Doubling US imports sounds not feasible for China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

While a signing ceremony seems likely for January, some of the arrangements in the phase one trade deal between China and the US sound impossible to achieve, says economist Arthur Kroeber at Money Week. It “still has some hoops to pass through”, he says.

Money Week:

We have a ‘phase one’ deal. It “still has some hoops to pass through”, as Arthur Kroeber notes on Gavekal. 

But it’s likely to happen. So what does it do? New tariffs that were due to kick in on yesterday are being indefinitely deferred. Tariffs imposed on China by the US at the start of September, will be halved, to 7.5%. The earlier tariffs all stay in place. China says it will more than double imports from the US by 2021. 

Kroeber suggests this is hard to meet “in the real world”. Chinese imports from the US hit $130bn in 2017. The idea that it will be able to boost this by $200bn by 2021 seems unrealistic given that the “biggest previous two-year jump” came in at less than $40bn.

More at Money Week.

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US needs a limited trade deal with China, for window dressing - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber

A limited trade deal might be in the pipeline for the coming weeks, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® in the Stock Daily Dish. But the trade war is far from over, he warns. "There is a material risk (say 20 to 25%) that we don‘t get a deal.” 

Stock Daily Dish:

“My baseline scenario is that both leaders still need a deal for political reasons, so we are likely to get one in the next few weeks, but it won‘t be this week,” said Arthur Kroeber of Gavekal Dragonomics, a financial research firm headquartered in Hong Kong. “The maneuvering right now is mainly end-of-negotiation stuff. But both sides are playing brinkmanship pretty hard so there is material risk (say 20 to 25%) that we don‘t get a deal.”

But the prolonged trade war — and Friday‘s tariff hike — serves as ammunition for hawks on both sides, who see a more confrontational struggle for global dominance unfolding...

In Washington, the lack of a deal would result in “increased tensions between the national security wing of the U.S. administration, who will be happy with this result, and the business-tech community, who are anxious to expand their participation in China and will be pretty mad,” said Kroeber, of the Hong Kong financial research firm.

More in the Stock Daily Dish. Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.

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What if? Intended positives for foreign investors when trade deal (1) is done - Mark Schaub

Mark Schaub

China-lawyer Mark Schaub gives a detailed overview of the drafted legal improvements foreign investors can expect when the phase 1 trade agreement will be in place. For example, the VIE's will largely remain safe. That is, warns Mark Schaub, a huge if, he writes at the weblog of his law firm King&Wood Mallesons.

Mark Schaub on the regulatory regime change and VIE structures:

For many years, MOFCOM or its local divisions have been the approval authority for green field investment and merger and acquisition projects, and the State Administration of Industry and Commerce (now the State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) ) or its local divisions have been the registration authority for the FIEs. 

Starting from the pilot scheme in 2013 at the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the Chinese government has been implementing a different approach towards foreign investors. Namely moving from a catalogue which sets out comprehensively how foreign investment is treated in specific sectors to a “pre-establishment national treatment with negative list”. Basically the negative list sets out only sectors that are restricted or off limits. 

The negative list approach was introduced nationally by the publication of Provisional Measures on Administration of Filing for Establishment and Change of Foreign Investment Enterprises[4] (the “Provisional Measures”) by the MOFCOM on October 8, 2016. According to the Provisional Measures foreign investment not falling within the scope of the negative list would only require a filing and not an approval. 

It seems the Draft Regulations provides that the SAMR will take over all “approval” and “filing” roles for foreign investment including the incorporation or changes in registration (whether included on the negative list or not). This approach seems to have been confirmed in the draft Guidelines on Better Handling Foreign Investment Enterprises Registration that was issued by SAMR on 6 November 2019. [5] 

VIE remain largely safe – One of the breakthroughs under the Draft Regulations is that a VIE structure may not be needed for Chinese investors’ round-trip investment arrangement in the circumstance where a Chinese investor (i.e. a Chinese individual, company or other organization) uses its wholly-owned enterprise established outside China to facilitate round-trip investments into China and approval is obtained from the State Council for the exemption of application of negative list. In other words, the Draft Regulations treat such round-trip investment (not all round-trip investment) as domestic investment and therefore restrictions or prohibitions set out in the negative list for foreign investment will not apply. 

Notably, and consistent with the terms of the FIL, the Draft Regulations do not question the legality of VIE structures established in China by foreign investors which wish to circumvent restrictions on their investments. More details with regard to the necessity and application of VIE arrangement can be referred to our previous article at China: VIEs Alive and Well. 

More at the weblog of his law firm, including investment protection, Sino-foreign JV with Chinese natural persons, investment management, and many unresolved issues. 

More at the weblog.

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Beijing's worst nightmare: a collapse of the property market - Shirley Ze Yu

Shirley Ze Yu

What is Beijing's worst nightmare? The trade war? The troubles in Hong Kong? No, says political economist Shirley Ze Yu. China's real nightmare is a collapse of the property market, she writes in the South China Morning Post. "China’s property market is the grey rhino, overfed on massive liquidity steroids."

Shirley Ze Yu:

“The only force that can defeat China is from within. No exterior force can.” On October 2 this year, the Communist Party’s leading journal of political theory, Qiushi, published in full a 2018 speech by President Xi Jinping, highlighting in stark language China’s coming challenges as the People’s Republic enters its 71st year. Indeed, in 2020, China’s primary economic risk is most likely to come not from the trade war, but from its inflated property market. 

“Black swans” and “grey rhinos” dominated China’s financial lexicon this year. Few in the population know what they are but most know what they mean. They mean fear. 

China’s property market is the grey rhino, overfed on massive liquidity steroids. One injection was the massive stimulus introduced in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Another injection was from the six consecutive interest rate cuts in the 12 months to November 2015. 

Awash in liquidity, Chinese stock markets took off too, but by late 2015, the bubble had burst and the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled about 50 per cent from its 2015 peak. Real estate, however, partied on. At the annual Caixin Summit earlier this month, China’s top economic policymaker Liu Shijin said that the targeted 6 per cent growth in gross domestic product is still “within reach” this year but for next year, worryingly, “drastic measures would be needed”.  

Experts have drawn comparisons between China’s overheated property market and Japan’s housing bubble that burst in 1991, plunging the economy into the “lost decades”. Like Japan, China has risen to become a major trading nation thriving on a massive trade surplus. Both are today among the world’s top creditor nations with a culture of high savings rates and heavy reliance on bank lending, creating a highly leveraged economic growth model. 

Former United States Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke concluded that Japan’s post-bubble deflation was due to ill-timed and ill-measured monetary-policy responses from its central bank. China, however, has attributed this to the Plaza Accord, a 1985 currency pact that set off Japan’s currency demise. 

With Japan’s fate in mind, China is expected to resist any attempt by the US to introduce a Plaza Accord 2.0 in the interim trade deal under negotiation. Any clause on exchange rate stability will therefore remain symbolic in both language and execution.

More in the South China Morning Post.

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The trade war is not yet over - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

Former trade negotiator Harry Broadman warns at Bloomberg the trade war is far from over despite positive sounds on the phase 1 agreement. US President Donald Trump seems more engaged in winning the 2020 presidential elections than ending the trade war. And he introduces agricultural deals for the US that makes the country look more Chinese than ever.

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Boardrooms have to shape up to face the fallout of the trade war - Harry Broadman

Harry Broadman

International trade veteran Harry Broadman discusses how the world's boardrooms have to shape up to deal with the fallout of the trade war and global tumult hitting companies and countries.

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