Weblog with daily updates of the news on a frugal, fair and beautiful China, from the perspective of internet entrepreneur, new media advisor and president of the China Speakers Bureau Fons Tuinstra
Business analyst Shaun Rein discusses the current state of China’s economy, how consumer confidence is slowly recovering, and why the fear of geopolitical tensions stops them from spending more in the economy. And why investors should be careful in investing right now in the second economy of the world.
During the Cold War, authors from Eastern Europe and Russia belonged to household names among Western elites, but today translations of their Chinese counterparts failed to make it to Western bookshelves, says Ian Johnson, author of Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future. One of the reasons is the changed commercial business models of publishing houses, he says in an extensive interview in China Law & Policies.
China Law & Policies:
Johnson: Yes, I do mention in the introduction, and then especially in the conclusion, I say, rather than seeing them as uniquely Chinese, we should see them as part of a global conversation about how we deal with the past. And that rather than seeing people like Fang Fang as a one-off author in this far away land–“planet China”–that has these weird things going on, we should see her as part of our cultural heritage. She uses techniques of historical-based fiction used by U.S. superstar academic writers like Saidiya Hartman at Columbia University. She uses fiction to recreate the enslaved person’s experiences because we don’t obviously have memoirs and diaries of enslaved people. So she does all the research possible, and then she uses a bit of imagination to put herself in that person’s place and writes about what it might’ve been like to come over on a slave ship.
This is in the conclusion, I issue a plea for civil society in the West to try to bring these people more into our conversations. We don’t translate their works enough. Thank goodness that Fang Fang’s novels are now being translated a little bit. But when I think back to the Cold War, people like Václav Havel and Milos Forman and Milan Kundera were kind of household names among educated people in the West in a way that their Chinese counterparts today are not. We need to find a way to get these works published, get the movies out there, have a festival for some of the films. And that’s why I hope it can become part of our world and not just some weird thing off in China.
CL&P: Yeah. And why do you think it’s not part of our world? Is it a language or cultural issue, right? You talked about the Cold War, there were more translations going on. Is it a lack of funding? I mean, why do you think it’s not being brought into the Western canon as much?
Johnson: There’s a bunch of reasons, and I’ll mention a few, in no particular order. But I think one, for example, is publishing. I remember in the 1980s, Philip Roth wrote a series of introductions for Central European authors, and they were published by a mainstream publisher [Penguin]. But publishers today are under much more commercial pressure, so that if you’re an editor, you can’t just say, “hey, you know what? I’m just going to publish this stuff because I know it’s not going to make any money, but I feel that this is an important thing. I am going to commission the translation, and we may lose money, but we’re going to make a ton of money elsewhere.” And now when you go to Amazon, you see hardcover books that list for $25 being sold for $19. That $5 is a big chunk of the profit margin of the publishers. So they have to look really carefully at what they publish. This is part of the digitization and the way you can compartmentalize financial returns on things that affect the media in general, newspapers and so on. So there’s that reason.
But also China for many people feels further away. Central Europe was part of the West, so to speak, or you could see them as part of the West, especially Czechoslovakia and Poland and even Russia. Solzhenitsyn wrote in a format–the Russian novel–that was familiar to educated people in the West.
Language is [also] a problem. When they do get overseas, if you were to invite some people over, they don’t speak English. By and large, almost none of the people I write about in the book speak English. People like Ai Weiwei is the total outlier. That’s why he gets so much media attention, because he can speak great English. For example I was trying to get a prominent Chinese journalist a fellowship at a major university here in the West, and they said, well, ‘how’s she going to participate in the fellowship if she can’t speak English very well?’
Cashless payments have become mainstream in China, but cash is still valuable and the government supports cash payments, says financial expert Sara Hsu, an associate professor at the University of Tennessee, specializing in supply chain management in the Guardian. A “[recent] directive pushes China’s policy of inclusive finance further to ensure that both elderly Chinese and foreigners can participate in economic transactions,” says Hsu.
The Guardian:
For most people it’s simple enough, but using them usually requires a Chinese bank account, or providing extensive identification to connect to a foreign account – if the foreign bank allows it.
The hegemony of this system can also make life difficult for China’s citizens who don’t have the level of technological literacy required for the modern world.
“China is one of the top countries for using cashless payment systems, but penetration is not 100%,” says Sara Hsu, an associate professor at the University of Tennessee, specialising in supply chain management.
“Elderly Chinese still often prefer to pay with cash and some struggle with using mobile payments.”…
Then, last week, the PBOC together with several ministries issued a joint notice requiring local commerce authorities to ensure retailers and hospitality venues in key business and tourist districts were fully equipped to take foreign payments, and that retailers linked to people’s daily lives – including markets, breakfast shops and pharmacies – could take cash.
“The situation has improved to some extent, but this [recent] directive pushes China’s policy of inclusive finance further to ensure that both elderly Chinese and foreigners can participate in economic transactions,” says Hsu.
AI and e-commerce expert Sharon Gai discusses what companies can learn from their competitors in China at a conference in Europe. China explained for non-Chinese marketeers.
Tesla is losing its China market in the competition with its Chinese competitor. It might lose the rest of the world unless foreign protectionism saves the American car, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. Nobody can beat China when it comes to price wars, he adds, and Chinese manufacturers will dominate the market in five to ten years, he adds.
Days are gone when Chinese consumers carried large plastic bags of cash to pay for houses, cars, international trips, and other big-ticket purchases. Credit cards are big among especially younger consumers, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at the WSJ.
After a lackluster start of 2024, consumer expert Ben Cavender sees a modest improvement in consumer sentiment in China, he tells Reuters. He said some companies were thinking about how to grow their business in China again after years of holding off on investing, which was helping sentiment to improve.
Reuters:
Other analysts said the spending data could be a turning point, as consumption in China has struggled to recover since the lifting of COVID curbs, weighed down by a property market downturn, high youth unemployment and concerns over job security amid an economic slowdown.
“Our sense is that there is a small but growing sentiment within white collar jobs that the market situation is improving and this is also leading to greater willingness to spend,” said Ben Cavender, managing director at Shanghai-based China Market Research Group.
He said some companies were thinking about how to grow their business in China again after years of holding off on investing, which was helping sentiment to improve.
In February, average spending per trip during the Lunar New Year holiday, one of the biggest holidays, fell 9.5% versus 2019 according to Reuters calculations based off government data, prompting analysts to say that “consumption downgrading” was still happening.
The USA is dealing with huge problems and cannot afford to challenge China directly, but decided to stabilize the relations between both countries, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein to CNBC-TV18. But the USA is for sure keeping economic pressure going, he adds.
Political analyst Victor Shih breaks down the relations between China, the US, and the rest of the world in a discussion from the Chevron Auditorium in the I-House on “China-US Futures: Pathways to Peaceful Coexistence”. Key takeaways: many problems perceived by American politicians with China are not as bad as they try to let us believe.
China’s economy is facing rough weather, but while the luxury market has its problems, some segments are doing better than ever, says Rupert Hoogewerf, Hurun Report Chairman and Chief Researcher at the Hurun Report. And more important, the happiness of China’s high net worth individuals is increasing he adds at the 20th anniversary of the Hurun Best of the Best Awards.
Rupert Hoogewerf:
“This year marks the 20th anniversary of the Hurun Best of the Best Awards, our 20th year of tracking the brand choices and lifestyle changes of China’s luxury consumers.”
“Although the size of the luxury car market, defined as cars costing over CNY500,000, has continued to shrink, the size of other premium industries has basically increased, especially the likes of luxury travel and traditional luxury, bringing the overall size of China’s premium market up 3% to CNY1.7tn. In China, this is one of the rare trillion-Yuan industries, others including elderly care, automobiles, real estate, etc… China’s luxury consumers are now undoubtedly the world’s biggest spenders when it comes to luxury in the world.”
“With the global economy facing many uncertainties, the Hurun Economic Confidence Index of China’s high net worth individuals has declined for the second year, but is still at a high level compared with the past. This year, the Hurun Happiness Index is at its highest level for a decade, especially for Generation X and in terms of family life.”
“In the coming year, China’s HNWIs surveyed plan to increase their investments in gold, funds and bank deposits, and decrease their investments in real estate, both for residential and commercial, and art.”
“Gifting continues to be on the rise again, with Chinese HNWI males preferring to gift watches, baijiu and electronic products.”
“The priorities of China’s HNWIs have changed dramatically. ‘Health’ becomes the most important thing. High net worth individuals also increased their enthusiasm for exercise by 20%. The UHNWIs demand nutritionists and family doctors more than investment advisers.”
Hong Kong-based marketing guru Ashley Dudarenok discusses the way China’s market is different from the rest of the world in terms of platform, consumer behavior, and other elements of the crowded and fast-moving market. A debate on Vistatalks with Maria Coa.
Journalist and author Ian Johnson discusses his latest book, Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future, at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, on why and how he came to write his book. Questions are asked by Orville Schell is the Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society in New York and Glenn Tiffert a distinguished research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China.
Temu, owned by Pinduoduo, is one of the leaders in online retail that has been ruffling international competitors in the past year. Business analyst Shaun Rein looks for the BBC at the firm’s international expansion. “They’re proud that Chinese companies can slay the e-commerce dragons from the United States like Amazon,” he adds.
BBC:
Temu is owned by Chinese giant Pinduoduo – “a monster in Chinese e-commerce,” according to Shaun Rein, founder of the China Market Research Group.
“Throughout China, everyone buys products on Pinduoduo, from speakers to t-shirts or socks,” he says.
The company consistently trades places with rival Alibaba for the top spot of most valuable Chinese firm listed on a US stock exchange. Its current worth sits at just under $150bn (£117bn).
With the Chinese consumer market under its spell, Pinduoduo expanded overseas with Temu, using the same model that had ensured its previous success. According to Mr Rein, who is based in Shanghai, the firm has become a great source of pride and patriotism.
“They’re proud that Chinese companies can slay the e-commerce dragons from the United States like Amazon,” he adds.
A quick scroll through the Temu app or website will bring up anything from steel-toecap trainers to a device designed to help the elderly and pregnant women put on socks. A menagerie of manufactured goods, almost entirely produced in factories in China, Mr Rein explains.
US lawmakers have started debate on a law that would ban the successful TikTok app. Political analyst Kaiser Kuo dismisses the effort as misguided at best, he writes in the ChinaFile. “In a sense, the threat of TikTok is real: In this crisis of confidence, and in a state of moral panic that we’ll look back on red-faced a decade out, TikTok is causing us to inflict grievous self-harm.”
Kaiser Kuo:
The bill that got through Congress on Wednesday to effectively ban TikTok—let’s not pretend either that this bill isn’t specifically about TikTok, or that a forced divestiture isn’t tantamount to a ban—is the latest example of a classic pattern of American behavior: In a panicked attempt to preserve the American way of life, we undermine that very way of life. This time, we seem to be falling over one another to sacrifice our openness, a cornerstone of American strength, out of exaggerated fear that a social media app owned by a Chinese company could be our undoing. As usual, this whole episode says much more about us than it does about China. We have a terrible track record of making bad decisions while in the throes of a moral panic, from Prohibition to the Patriot Act. A closer analogy can be found in the Trump administration’s moves to restrict Chinese STEM students and researchers from coming and working in the U.S., and the subsequent China Initiative. Out of a fear that Chinese industrial espionage would confer an advantage on Beijing, we somehow decided that we were better off if all that prodigious Chinese STEM talent went back to China or just stayed there.
If we accept that we ought to take preemptive action against threats to national security, even if they are only latent and potential, any actions should address those potential threats in good faith. In this case, the threats are data harvested by social media falling into the hands of the Chinese, and social media being used by China to advance a hostile agenda. The bill now making its way to the Senate does not address either of these threats. Instead, it takes aim only at one relatively minor potential vector. Not only is the preponderance of valuable data on TikTok out in the open—the content itself, not the metadata—and would be there just the same irrespective of who owned the company, but Beijing can easily either buy valuable data from brokers, vacuum it up from other social media properties, or just acquire it the old fashioned way, through hacking.
That the motive behind this bill is not, in fact, data security is driven home by the refusal of legislators to accept ByteDance’s own proposal, Project Texas, which was devised in consultation with the Austin-based tech company Oracle and The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and would see data localized and housed entirely on servers controlled by Oracle with oversight entirely by U.S. citizens vetted and approved by Oracle. Project Texas would make TikTok the most locked-down, secure social media property in the U.S., if not in the world. The notion that even under that plan, Beijing would still decide to squeeze ByteDance just to acquire data it could obtain far more easily, and in ways that wouldn’t seriously imperil the only Chinese social media company to have enjoyed any global success, is just risible.
And influence? If TikTok is a potent vector for Chinese propagandists, one has to ask: How’s that working out for you, Beijing? Across its years of popularity, American attitudes toward China have plummeted, not improved. If we’re looking for causation, it is clear enough that, if anything, it’s our low national opinion of China driving D.C.’s animus toward TikTok. In a sense, the threat of TikTok is real: In this crisis of confidence, and in a state of moral panic that we’ll look back on red-faced a decade out, TikTok is causing us to inflict grievous self-harm.
AI is going to change our lives in the next five to ten years, says AI expert Alvin Wang Graylin, co-author of the new book Our Next Reality, in an interview at MRTV. “Nothing will be the same anymore! In this 90-minute in-depth discussion Alvin Wang Graylin gives us fascinating insights on how the AI-powered Metaverse will change all our lives and what we can do to make it an overall positive outcome for our society,” MRTV writes.
AI is going to have a major beneficial effect on extended reality (XR), like augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR), says Alvin Wang Graylin, China President and Global VP of Corporate Development at HTC at Golf Business. “Motion tracking, hand tracking, voice interactions, spatial scanning, and procedural world generation would all not be possible without AI,” adds Graylin.
Gulf Business:
When combined with extended reality (XR) technologies such as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR), AI opens a world of creative possibilities but raises new issues related to privacy, manipulation, and safety.
“AI will solve the biggest issue the XR space faces by democratising content creation and bringing its cost to near zero,” said Alvin Wang Graylin, China President and Global VP of Corporate Development at HTC – who will be speaking at DeepFest 2024.
“And immersive technologies will enable unlimited virtual worlds to give an outlet for the energy and renewed purpose to the billions of displaced workers that AI will create in the coming decade due to its massive gains in productivity.”
The promise of XR is fueling predictions for an array of once-unthinkable possibilities within the fast-emerging metaverse. “By 2030 people could be spending more time in the metaverse than in the real world,” KPMG said in a report while projecting that people will be applying for jobs, earning a living, meeting with friends and shopping using the virtual capabilities of the metaverse…
A study by PwC revealed that the use of AR and VR for soft skills training was four times faster than in a traditional classroom setting.
Together with AI, XR will deliver physical interactions dynamically and in real-time. The innovative technology will achieve this by overlaying digital elements in the real-world environment, enabling businesses to deliver contextually pertinent just-in-time data, support, and information to people who are navigating complex experiences.
“AI-related technologies have been a major part of almost all aspects of enabling immersive computing to be possible. Motion tracking, hand tracking, voice interactions, spatial scanning, and procedural world generation would all not be possible without AI,” said Graylin.
From enhancing productivity to transforming customer experiences, XR presents an array of benefits for businesses looking to gain a competitive edge in the market. Companies can use the technology to virtually design and test new products and experiences much faster and at a fraction of the cost and to deliver immersive and personalised entertainment experiences that can’t be replicated in the real world.
The Book “Our Next Reality” is available on Amazon: 