China watcher Kaiser Kuo sees now the China hawks in the US are losing ground, after Trump realized China was not the pushover he hoped for, in a wide-ranging discussion at the Nonzero podcast with Robert Wright.
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For years, the growth of AI was built on scaling up its GPUs, but innovation expert Alvin Wang Graylin, author of Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse, sees now a move to more collaboration. Chip maker Nvidia is not the only winner anymore, as competition is growing and AI models can develop through more experience and need less capacity to grow, as China’s Deepseek proved earlier this year, he says at the Big Bang Future Lab.
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China’s financial system is much tightly controlled by the government compared to what the world is used to, says financial expert Victor Shih at the BBC. China has been spending trillions of US dollars in loans to both the developing and the developed countries, including to the insurer of the CIA’s pension fund, writes the BBC.
The BBC:
“China has a kind of financial system that the world has never seen,” says Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Centre at University of California San Diego. China has the largest banking system in the world – larger than the US, Europe and Japan put together, he adds.
That size, along with the amount of control Beijing exerts over state banks, gives it unique capabilities.
“The government controls interest rates and directs where the credit goes,” Mr Shih says. “This is only possible with very strict capital control, which no other country could have on a sustainable basis.”
Some of the investments in wealthy economies appear to have been made in order to generate a healthy return. Others fall in line with Beijing’s strategic objectives, set out a decade ago in a major government initiative called Made in China 2025.
In it the Chinese authorities outlined a clear plan to dominate 10 cutting-edge industries, like robotics, electric vehicles and semiconductors by this year.
Beijing wanted to fund big investments abroad so key technologies could be brought back to China.
Global alarm at the plan led China to drop public mention of it, but Victor Shih says it “stayed very much alive” as a guiding strategy.
“There are all kinds of plans still being published,” he says, “including an artificial intelligence plan and a smart manufacturing plan. However, the mother of all plans is the 15th five-year plan.”
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Alvin Wang Graylin, author of Our Next Reality: Preparing for the AI-powered Metaverse, explains why there is no AI race any country can win. He discusses at the Thinkers Forum why the AI bubble everybody is talking about is not the right one.
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The youngsters are China’s most studied group of consumers, but branding expert Ashley Dudarenok warns brands should not overlook the country’s silver swans as major consumers, she explains in the Jing Daily. “Ignoring them is not just a missed opportunity; it’s a strategic blunder,” she writes.
Ashley Dudarenok:
In the relentless pursuit of Gen Z and millennials, the marketing world has turned a blind eye to one of the most lucrative consumer cohorts in China: the affluent retiree. Dismissed by many brands as a legacy segment, these individuals — predominantly women aged 60 and over — are, in fact, a powerful economic force.
They are the “Silver Swans”: digitally savvy, brand loyal, and endowed with high disposable income and the freedom to spend it on themselves. While the industry chases youth, this mature audience represents a vast blue ocean of opportunity for luxury brands bold enough to reimagine their narratives around elegance, experience, and well-being.
This generation, which witnessed China’s economic miracle firsthand, is now enjoying its fruits. Their consumption is not for social clout but for self-fulfillment, making them a uniquely stable and valuable customer base. Ignoring them is not just a missed opportunity; it’s a strategic blunder.
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L’Oreal bought this week a second Chinese cosmetic company to strengthen its market position in China, a strategy becoming more common among foreign brands, says branding expert Ben Cavender to Reuters. Fierce domestic competition and a sluggish consumer market are the basis of this change of strategy.
Reuters:
The investment in Lan comes after L’Oreal paid 442 million yuan ($62 million) for a 6.67% stake in Chando, as disclosed by the Shanghai-based company last month in its prospectus for an IPO in Hong Kong.
China has been challenging for international players, as an increasing proportion of its $75 billion beauty and personal care market has been won in recent years by domestic brands, dubbed C-Beauty. At the same time, overall growth has slowed, with consumer confidence hit by a prolonged property crisis and widespread concerns about job stability.
Buying stakes in well-known domestic names could be a shortcut for L’Oreal to piggyback on C-beauty’s momentum, said Ben Cavender, managing director at Shanghai-based China Market Research Group.
“L’Oreal and other international brands face a tremendous amount of pressure from domestic brands that are iterating new products faster, and often have been more aggressive at marketing new skincare ingredients, concepts, and routines,” he said.
Following its third-quarter earnings last month, L’Oreal CEO Nicolas Hieronimus said the group’s China business grew around 3% in the quarter, its first increase in two years.
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TikTok, Temu, and Shein are better in branding than most Western brands, argues branding expert Björn Ognibeni on his weblog. The result of this miscalculation is evident in performance differences: While many Asian platforms boast strong user retention and high time spent on site, Western providers are struggling with declining conversion rates and rising acquisition costs.
Björn Ognibeni:
Measurability is complex (how can trust building be quantified?), ROI seems uncertain, and impatience for quarterly results leads to short-term tactics. But when comparing the branding strategies of Western and Chinese companies, three areas of missed opportunities become obvious:
Untapped Discovery Potential: Western e-commerce is ideal for when you know exactly what you’re looking for. But what about those times when people want to browse, find inspiration and discover something new? Chinese platforms show us: Discovery-driven shopping can complement search well and offer a significant growth opportunity, but only if it is done right and does not annoy customers.
The Social Commerce Misunderstanding: Western companies often misunderstand ‘social commerce’, viewing it merely as a way of buying reach on Instagram or TikTok, when in fact it is so much more than that. In Asia, where social thinking has always been more ingrained in the culture, companies have realized that it’s about building genuine relationships. This approach might also appeal to Western customers because the desire for social connection is universal, not just cultural.
Enshittification of the UX: The creeping deterioration of the user experience due to excessive advertising is rendering Western platforms increasingly unusable. Search results are flooded with sponsored products and every click leads to more ads. And to customer frustration.
The result of this miscalculation is evident in performance differences: While many Asian platforms boast strong user retention and high time spent on site, Western providers are struggling with declining conversion rates and rising acquisition costs.
More at Björn Ognibeni’s weblog.
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A silent exodus is taking place, as China’s youngsters migrate from the big cities to cheaper and more relaxed places in the country, like Dali in Yunnan, Chengdu in Sichuan, and Xiamen in Fujian, notes branding expert Ashley Dudarenok in the Jing Daily. What does this mean for the larger brands, she explains.
Ashley Dudarenok:
This digital nomadism has a distinctly Chinese flavor. It’s less about roaming the world and more about finding a stable, better base within the country. It represents a mature, pragmatic approach to leveraging technology for lifestyle design, a concept that was unthinkable a decade ago.
This silent exodus is not just a social trend; it’s a seismic shift in consumer dynamics that demands a new strategy from brands.
- Local experiences and pop-ups: Instead of only focusing on flagship stores in Beijing or Shanghai, brands can open curated pop-ups, boutique shops, or co-branded experiences in cities like Chengdu, Xiamen, or Dali. These spaces could serve coffee, offer co-working or creative areas, or host events that resonate with the local lifestyle.
- Lifestyle-oriented products: Products that enhance quality of life, such as premium coffee, artisanal foods, home décor, wellness items, or portable tech for remote work, will appeal to consumers seeking comfort and convenience in smaller cities.
- Value-based marketing: Messaging should highlight sustainability, craftsmanship, and authenticity rather than just luxury or prestige. Consumers in these cities respond more to narratives that reflect who they are and how they live, rather than what they own.
- Integrated living-work solutions: Spaces that combine living, working, and social interaction — think converted apartments or hybrid café-co-working models — could capture this audience, who often rent and adapt homes for both work and life.
The evolution of “Lying Flat” from a protest to a proactive lifestyle choice is one of the most significant social trends in modern China. It signals a generational break from the singular, state-promoted definition of success.
China’s youth are not lazy; they are exhausted by an outdated model. They are using their education, digital tools, and economic privilege to architect lives of meaning on their own terms. Their silent exodus is creating new cultural hubs, empowering a new generation of artisans, and fundamentally altering the consumer map.
For brands, the message is clear: the future of Chinese consumption is not just about what is being bought, but about where and why it’s being bought. Understanding this search for a better life is the key to unlocking the next chapter of growth.
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Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein, author of r, explains why China is winning the trade war with the US and has been preparing for a new exchange with the US over the past seven years, he says at WTFinance.
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Sharon Gai, author of Ecommerce Reimagined: Retail and Ecommerce in China, started her career in Alibaba’s early days and now watches the e-commerce evolution in both China and the US. She discusses her career with Grace Shao, touching on AI, branding, and innovation.
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Starbucks sold 60 percent of its China business earlier this week, hoping that local input could help its operation. But Shanghai-based business analyst Ben Cavender sees that the US company still has major difficulties in cracking the Chinese market, he writes at WHTC.com.
WHTC:
Yet challenges remain. Ben Cavender, managing director at Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, said Starbucks’ brand is caught in a “really awkward position” in China.
Budget-conscious consumers are flocking to Luckin or Yum China’s KCOFFEE, while younger and more sophisticated drinkers are gravitating to boutique cafés offering better ambiance and quality at similar prices.
“Starbucks is competing with an offer which by definition is a bit more unique and funky and interesting to the consumer,” Cavender said.
Starbucks China division generated around $3.1 billion in net sales last year, according to quarterly filings, compared to nearly $3 billion in 2024. Luckin reported slightly more than $3.6 billion in sales for the fiscal year ending in February.
Starbucks did not disclose the licensing terms in the deal. Yum China, which launched KCOFFEE in 2022, pays licensing fees to Yum equal to 3% of net system sales, according to filings.
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China veteran Kaiser Kuo, host of The Sinica Podcast, looks back at how the debate on China has developed in the West over the past forty to fifty years, and here it ended now, in a debate with host Eric Olander of Conversation Changers. The discussion on what China wants says more about the West than about China, he argues.
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The Hurun China rich-list has reached a record height, says Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the Hurun Report, at the release of the 2025 ranking, according to YiCai Global. Both new technology companies and a surprising export have added to the results, he adds. Also, the rising stock markets added to the wealth of China’s rich.
Yicai Global:
A total of 1,434 individuals with personal fortunes exceeding CNY5 billion (USD700 million) made this year’s list, up 31 percent from 2024. Their combined wealth surged 42 percent to nearly CNY30 trillion. Among them, 1,198 saw their wealth rise, including 376 new entrants, while 276 saw flat or lower fortunes, and 38 dropped off the list. The average age of those on the list was 60, one year younger than last year.
Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the Hurun Report, said the number of entrepreneurs on the list has nearly reached a historical peak, driven by a sharp rebound in China’s stock markets — with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Hang Seng Index all up 40 percent to 50 percent year on year.
Hoogewerf added that the rise of new technology firms and a robust export market have also bolstered the ranks of China’s wealthy. He noted that the best-performing sectors over the past year included new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, new consumption, computing power, biomedicine, and securities services.
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Europe could have been a winner in the trade war between China and the US, says political analyst Shaun Rein at the Thinkers Forum. Not only did they lose the opportunity to win from the trade war, but they are going to be the larger economic losers of the next decade, becoming an open-air museum, he adds.
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China’s wealthy individuals are shifting away from displaying big brands to showcase their wealth, notes luxury expert Ashley Dudarenok at Jing Daily. “Their new currency is not cash, but time; their new status symbols are not displayed on a shelf, but experienced in the mind and body,” writes Dudarenok.
Ashley Dudarenok:
For decades, the global luxury narrative around China has been written in tangible, logo-heavy script: the Birkin bag, the Rolex watch, the Ferrari. These were the undeniable status symbols of a new economic powerhouse. But a profound and lucrative shift is underway.
China’s most discerning elite are moving beyond the material. Their new currency is not cash, but time; their new status symbols are not displayed on a shelf, but experienced in the mind and body. Welcome to the era of “invisible luxury,” where the most extravagant purchases leave no physical trace.This pivot from the tangible to the intangible — encompassing hyper-personalized wellness, exclusive education consulting, and spiritual enlightenment — signals a more mature market in search of something far more profound than social validation: longevity, advantage, and meaning.
The quest for health has evolved from general wellness to a high-tech, data-driven pursuit of longevity, or even “bio-enhancement.” This is no longer about a generic vitamin IV drip; it’s about comprehensive, member-only protocols.
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Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein explains why China has the upper hand in the current trade war with the US. For anything the US does not want to send to China, China has an alternative to hit back, he says at the Thinkers Forum.
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