The fragile relationship between China and Russia – Zhang Lijia

 

Zhang Lijia

The rest of the world looks with interest at the assumed friendship between China and Russia. Still, that relation is not as close as many believe, says author Zhang Lijia in an analysis in the South China Morning Post. The powerplay is way more important than the assumed friendship, she writes.

Zhang Lijia:

But a leaked memo, reportedly from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) tells a more sobering story – one of deep mistrust, strategic anxiety and growing alarm over China’s rise. The document describes China as a potential threat, even an enemy. It outlines fears of Chinese espionage, economic encroachment and cultural infiltration – especially regarding Chinese technology and creeping irredentism over former Qing territories like Vladivostok.

The memo – assessed as authentic by Western intelligence agencies – lifts the curtain on a relationship that is far more fragile than official statements suggest. As historian Sören Urbansky, an expert on Sino-Russian relations at Ruhr University Bochum in Germany, told me: “China and Russia are not natural allies, but strategic partners brought together primarily by their shared opposition to the West, rather than by trust or deep mutual affinity.”

This underlying mistrust, particularly within Russian security circles, doesn’t surprise those who closely follow the relationship – myself included.

More in the South China Morning Post.

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China-US trade deal lacks fine print – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

U.S. President Donald Trump may be enthusiastic about the trade deal between China and the U.S., which was closed in London this week. However, business analyst Shaun Rein points out that the deal is lacking crucial details and might not work, as he notes in The Economic Times. “So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump,” he adds.

Shaun Rein:

Trump is saying the deal has been signed and he has been talking about that the Chinese are going to send rare earths and magnets in advance to whatever the United States needs because what you have seen in the last month is the lack of rare earths that were exported to the United States has really crippled the American economy.

You can have companies, the big automakers like Ford and GM are rumoured to say, we need to relocate our manufacturing to China, so we can get access to rare earths despite the heavy tariffs that they would then incur by going into the United States. But here is the thing, China’s media has been a lot more circumspect with the details of this so-called trade agreement.

China has said the rumour is that they will give maybe export licenses to rare earths on a six-month trial basis to American companies. So, basically Trump is exaggerating the win in his mind and China is being a lot more honest probably saying well we do not have all the details ironed out, we want to come to an agreement but quite frankly China has the upper hand in the trade war with the United States right now…

The United States needs a deal. Frankly, China controls about 30-35% of global manufacturing. So, America might have the money, they might have the capital, but they need to buy the products from China. At the end of the day, China makes not just rare earths, about 90% of refined rare earths, but they also make most of the ibuprofen, most of the Tylenol.

Most of the antibiotics in the world comes from China. So, at the end of the day, that is real leverage. So, for instance in 2017, 18% of Chinese exports went to the US, that number is down to 14%. China on the other hand has shifted and exports to Asean, has gone up to 16%.

So, basically, it is a game of chicken right now. China’s economy is hurting, do not get me wg. There are about 15 million people who are involved in the export sector. You have seen that the CPI index has dropped about 0.1%. So, we are dealing with the D-word, deflation.

So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump and Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick because at the end of the day, the Americans need to buy from China. They cannot buy antibiotics from any other country in the world except for a little bit from India.

More in the Economic Times.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Stability key for trade relations between China and the US – Harry Broadman

 

Harry Broadman

Delegations from China and the US are discussing the risks and opportunities in trade for both countries in London. However, according to former US trade negotiator Harry Broadman, stability in trade relations is crucial for any outcomes that may follow those negotiations, as he notes at Al Jazeera. Unfortunately, processes for those stable relations are lacking, he adds.

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How health and wellness boom in China – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Consumer spending might only slowly recover in China, marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok sees interest in health and wellness booming, she writes in the Jing Daily, “This boom reflects a profound transformation in consumer priorities, with a growing emphasis on physical fitness, mental well-being, and preventative healthcare,” she adds.

Ashley Dudarenok:

Technology has played a transformative role in reshaping how Chinese consumers approach health and fitness. Wearable devices, such as smartwatches and fitness trackers, have become status symbols, blending functionality with fashion. These devices not only monitor metrics like heart rate, sleep patterns, and activity levels but also gamify fitness goals, encouraging users to stay active.

Social media platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu are equally influential. They serve as hubs for fitness tutorials, wellness tips, and product recommendations, making health trends highly accessible and aspirational. Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) and fitness influencers wield significant sway, often introducing their followers to new workouts, diets, and wellness products. For instance, a Douyin influencer’s endorsement of a fitness app or a protein supplement can drive millions of views — and sales — within hours.

In March 2025, limited-edition gold Loewe x Hellobike bicycles launched across Shanghai. Featuring race car-inspired Loewe branding and nods to Casa Loewe Shanghai’s golden façade, the campaign included out-of-home ads and a Loewe-backed biking challenge on the Hellobike app. Users logging 3 kilometers earned a virtual badge redeemable for coffee and a limited-edition Loewe newspaper at the Casa Loewe pop-up coffee cart.

Much more in the Jing Daily.

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How do science and politics relate in China – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

In the US, the tension between science and politics has been raising eyebrows. In China, politicians do invite scientists to listen to their arguments and might follow their suggestions. Still, sometimes political preferences in Beijing prevail, for example, during the Covid crisis, says political analyst Victor Shin, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, in his interview at Dwarkesh Clips.

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China is not going to play the Trump game – Arthur Kroeber

 

Arthur Kroeber

The Trump administration is pretty clueless on China, and that is only one of many issues when both countries are going to deal with each other, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, in an interview with the Australian broadcaster ABC. Both can inflict huge damage on each other, but neither is in a position to win a full-blown trade war, he adds.

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Why calling Xi will not help Trump – Harry Broadman

 

Harry Broadman

For a week, US President Trump has been speculating on how a call with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, will solve their trade issues. Harry Broadman, a former US trade representative, explains in Politico why Trump is wrong.

Politico:

Trump’s expectation that a call with Xi can reboot U.S.-China trade talks on those issues and render substantive results defies the diplomatic and policymaking protocols of China’s ruling Chinese Communist Party.

“Trump is a deal maker. Xi Jinping is not a deal maker — he’s a Party guy at the top of an administrative superstructure,” said Harry Broadman, a former assistant U.S. trade representative in the George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. “I cannot imagine that Xi would get into specifics — at most they might agree on certain principles but that’s not likely to satisfy Trump.”

There’s also a risk that a call between the two leaders could backfire for Trump by undermining longer term trade negotiations with China.

 More in Politico.

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China’s hidden debt crisis – Victor Shih

Victor Shih

On the surface, government debt in China appears well-manageable, but that is because the central government pushes its costs to a local level, says financial expert Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, in an interview on Dwarkesh Clips.

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Gen-Z is redefining China’s consumer habits – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Gen Z is now about 25% of China’s workforce and is dramatically changing the country’s consumer habits, says marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok in her vlog. Social commerce is key, she argues, especially now that consumer spending is low anyway.

Ashley Dudarenok is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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Why China has the upper hand in the trade war with Trump – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

China is having the upper hand in the trade war with Trump and can replace almost every product it purchases from the US with products from other countries, with the exception, perhaps, of semiconductors, says Shaun Rein, a Shanghai-based political analyst and author of The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order, at CNBC. China might push back harder than the US or Europe might be thinking, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How do discussions in China’s politburo work out – Victor Shih

 

Victor Shih

While the world is getting used to live sessions from the Oval Office in Washington, DC, few experts know how the Politburo in Beijing is making its policies. Political expert Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, explains in the Dwarkesh Clips how the relations between Xi Jinping, other members of the Politburo, and outside experts work out.

A full session is available here.

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What the West gets wrong about China – Kaiser Kuo

 

Kaiser Kuo

China veteran Kaiser Kuo has spent a lifetime explaining what America and Europe misunderstand when dealing with China. In an interview with Michael Walker, he dives into the most important issues. “The West lacks a coherent approach to China, with America viewing it as an existential threat whilst Europe oscillates between paranoia about espionage and courting investment. Politicians across both continents share a superficial understanding of the world’s most important rising power.”

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How China’s brands go global – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

China’s companies – large and small – are now exploring expansion into global markets, as the domestic market is only slowly recovering, says branding expert Ashley Dudarenok in the vlog. They are in the early phases of putting their brands on an international track, she says.

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Why I’m bullish on China now – Shaun Rein

 

Shaun Rein

Business analyst Shaun Rein, based in Shanghai, is more bullish on China’s economy than he has been since 2019, he says at CNBC. Especially now that China is winning the trade war, he adds.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How Trump pushed China into an upward mood – Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein

Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein, in an extensive interview at Forbes, says that after a very bearish 2024, China’s economy has found its way upwards because of Trump. “People rallied together and said, ‘We’ll deal with lower incomes. We’ll deal with bad sales. We want to make Trump bend’, he tells Forbes.

Forbes:

Long-time China market researcher Shaun Rein chalked up one of his three international business bestsellers in 2018 with “The War for China’s Wallet,” a look at how to sell to the country’s more than one billion consumers. At a time when investors, multinationals and politicians are awaiting a relatively brisk post-pandemic spending recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy, Rein has some good news: it’s coming soon.

“I’ve been in China for 28 years. Last year was probably the most bearish I’ve ever been on the economy,” Rein said in a Zoom interview from Shanghai earlier this month. “Youth unemployment hit 18.8%. Companies weren’t hiring. Fixed asset investment went up only about 0.1 percent. Last July and August were as bad as the height of Covid in terms of confidence and spending. Average retail sales only grew three to four percent year-on-year. People were scared,” even though personal savings totaling $20 trillion, among the world’s largest, he said.

In the last two months, however, Rein’s outlook has reversed. “This is the most bullish I’ve been on China in the last six years,” said Rein, the founder and managing director of Shanghai-headquartered China Market Research Group. Harvard-educated Rein’s other books include “The End of Cheap China” in 2012,​ “The End of Copycat China” in 2014, and last year’s “The Split: Finding Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Older.”

A catalyst for his new, upbeat view is that the hardest punches thrown by the Trump administration in this year’s trade war have yet to prove very damaging to China’s overall economy. “The Chinese feel that China has beat Trump with the tariff and trade war since Liberation Day, and they had the resolve to push back hard. They were not going to bend down because they wanted to push back over a century of humiliation. China bent down during the Qing Dynasty to the Western imperial powers. China wasn’t going to do that again.”

“People rallied together and said, ‘We’ll deal with lower incomes. We’ll deal with bad sales. We want to make Trump bend.’ And Trump did,” Rein said. “By going from 145% to 30% tariffs, Chinese felt they beat Trump. I don’t want say there’s exuberance in the country, but there’s a lot less anxiety than at any time I’ve seen in the last 7-8 years.”

More at Forbes.

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Meet China’s female self-made billionares – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Marketing expert Ashley Dudarenok sees the Rich List of Forbes in 2024 most Chinese women on its list. Meet the four top scorers on the list at her vlog. Wu Yajun: Co-founder of Long For Properties, with a net worth of US$5.8 billion. Zhou Qunfei: Founder of Lens Technology, manufacturing smartphone screens for Apple, Tesla, and Samsung, with a net worth of US$6.1 billion. Wang Laichun: Founder of electronics components maker Lingyi Itech, with a net worth of US$6.6 billion. Zhong Huinquan: Founder of Hanzhou Pharmaceutical, with a net worth of US$7.7 billion.

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Why China can apply AI better into the real economy, compared to the US – Winston Ma

 

Winston ma

China and the US are racing to develop and apply AI applications to the real economy. NYU innovation adjunct professor Winston Ma, author of The Digital War: How China’s Tech Power Shapes the Future of AI, Blockchain and Cyberspace, believes China has a clear advantage in applying AI tools into the real economy, compared to the US, he says on CNBC.

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AI started to replace jobs in China – Ashley Dudarenok

 

Ashley Dudarenok

Innovation expert Ashley Dudarenok says human programmers will still be needed in her vlog. But AI is already replacing a range of jobs in China. For example, Alibaba introduced its first AI employee, Tongyi Lingma, last summer, and it made huge inroads into the work process, she notes.

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